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Bitcoin saw extreme volatility yesterday after hitting a new all-time high of $104,088 on Wednesday. What followed was a typical “Darth Maul” candle on the daily chart, as Bitcoin fell from $103,550 to $90,500 before stabilizing. While some observers initially read the move as a severe rejection at the psychologically important $100,000 level, leading analysts suggest this may represent a routine exit from the market rather than a cyclical peak.
Could this be the top of the Bitcoin cycle?
Traders and analysts on Veteran trader IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) stated: “Bitcoin – Classic Darth Maul. Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think we’ve ever seen an asset reach the top of this type of candle. Usually this is to punish the latecomers, trap the shorts, and send them to a higher candle .
“It’s just whales using the high leverage button,” added another cryptocurrency analyst known as Astronomer (@astronomer_zero). Before continuing with whatever they were supposed to do. I would like to see the downside of this fuse obvious, but this may also be the case.
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Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, emphasized the magnitude of these moves, noting: “Darth Maul” $11K on Bitcoin’s daily chart. Stops triggered on both sides. Incredible intraday volatility in Bitcoin. Welcome What it means for BTC to hit $100,000 Moves of $10,000 a day are now a reality.
“$100,000 Bitcoin is the new $10,000,” he continued, sharing comparative charts from the 2020-2021 uptrend and drawing parallels to the current price environment.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, reinforced this historical context: “Bitcoin. Yes, this is normal.” Edwards posted a similar chart, noting the volatility when Bitcoin was at $10,000 plus $1,000 in early 2017.
Major indicators also continue to point to further upside. According to Matthew Siegel, head of research at VanEck, higher signals are rare at these levels. “Apart from funding rates, which could remain high for some time, very few of our ‘top signals’ indicators suggest that the cycle has peaked. The path of least resistance is still higher, in my opinion.”
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Siegel indicated Four key metrics: MVRV Z-Score (still below 5), Bitcoin SMA price multiple (indicating room for further growth), weak Google Trends, and cryptocurrency market dominance at a medium-term level. Together, these data points suggest that the current cycle may not be close to its peak.
Macro Analyst Alex Kruger (@krugermacro) Delivered Another view: “When I’m asked if this is the top, so let me share my view. In my book, the first leveraged flush of a strong bull run, especially one driven by strong fundamentals, is not the top.
He noted that although the move was generally widely expected — though not timed specifically — it does not change the fundamental strength of Bitcoin’s rise. Krueger added that the sudden retail shift to older altcoins “Dino” may signal a local top for those assets, but not necessarily for Bitcoin: “Nothing has really changed. I would have liked to see funding reset also on altcoins. Unfortunately, we can’t get On everything.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $98,146.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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