Southern Africa elections brought big changes in 2024

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HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — In South Africa, where democracy remains relatively stable, elections in 2024 have seen long-ruling liberation parties struggle to survive.

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Across Africa, power struggles involving military governments, coup attempts and armed conflict are common, but the southern region has been considerably more stable and elections in some countries have brought joy and hopes for a better future.

But not so much for some long-ruling parties. Decades of good intentions to liberate their countries from colonial rule seem to be giving way to frustration over the economic problems and limited opportunities of the region’s youth.

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As voters become younger, and without personal memories of colonialism, which ended before they were born, South Africa’s liberation struggle-era parties either lose ground or receive a wake-up call in 2024.

For many young voters, the government’s performance matters more than the historic liberation struggle-era credentials that these parties have relied on to stay in power for decades, leading to the “shifting political tectonic plates we are seeing,” said Nick Cheeseman, a professor of political science. . He is a professor at the University of Birmingham in England.

“Generational change is an important factor in the shifting political tectonic plates we are witnessing. People want jobs and dignity — you can’t eat memories,” said Cheesman, who researches African politics.

Botswana, a small country with a population of about 2.5 million people and a history of democratic stability, came as the biggest shock as the economy suffered from a global decline in demand for mined diamonds and high levels of youth unemployment.

Opposition supporters dressed in blue and white took to the streets to celebrate, while President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat even before vote counting finished after elections held in late October. This crushing collapse of the opposition marks the end of 58 years in power for the Botswana Democratic Party, which has ruled the country since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966.

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Months earlier, South African voters turned against the African National Congress, the party led by anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela in the 1990s. In May, the ANC lost its majority, forcing it to share power with the opposition.

The result put South Africa on an unknown political path for the first time since the end of apartheid three decades ago. The ANC has been gradually losing support since the 2009 national elections and has relinquished political control of major cities due to widespread dissatisfaction with corruption, failed service delivery and economic conflicts. However, the drop in support from 57.5% to 40% in May was its biggest loss yet.

In Namibia, long-serving South West African People’s Organization, or SWAPO, candidate, 72-year-old Netombo Nandi Ndayetwah, made history when she became the country’s first female president.

However, SWAPO won 51 seats in the parliamentary vote, exceeding only the 49 seats it needed to maintain its majority and narrowly avoiding becoming another liberation struggle party to be rejected in South Africa this year. This was SWAPO’s worst parliamentary result since Namibia’s independence from South Africa’s apartheid government in 1990, signaling a potential shift in the country’s political landscape.

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Nicole Beardsworth, a political researcher and lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said many liberalization governments had reasons for concern even though the consistency of democratic processes could be praised.

“What we see in Southern Africa is relative stability in terms of democratic norms, where citizens seem to believe that their votes matter and that they matter. So this is a concern for the ruling parties,” Beardsworth said.

In Mozambique, results that extended the rule of the ruling Frelimo party for nearly half a century after elections in October sparked protests that killed at least 100 people, according to Amnesty International.

Exiled opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, exploiting growing youth discontent in the country of 34 million people, has challenged the election results in court. He also continued to call for protests ranging from street marches to road and border closures and pot banging.

A similar situation occurred in January on the island of Comoros in the Indian Ocean, where news of current President Gazali Othmani winning a fourth term sparked violent unrest that left one person dead and dozens injured.

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Cheeseman, the political researcher, said the protests, including in countries where democracy is being thwarted, reflect “increasing signs — from protests to online dissent — that public opinion is already changing.”

“Even citizens who have lost confidence in democracy want a responsive and accountable government, and for their voices to be heard,” he said.

The elections toppled ruling parties in several countries, elsewhere in the region and across the economically troubled continent, which has a population of more than 1.4 billion and includes the youngest population in the world.

The Indian Ocean island of Mauritius, one of the most stable democracies in Africa, saw an opposition coalition take control of all contested parliamentary seats, leading to the expulsion of the government led by Pravind Jugnauth, who was replaced by former Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam.

In West Africa, Senegal in March elected little-known Basserou Diomaye Faye, who at 44 became the continent’s youngest leader.

Faye defeated his rivals, including a former prime minister who was supported by current President Macky Sall, just weeks after he was released from prison to run in the election. Hopes for change remain high in a country where more than 60% of the population is under 25 and 90% work in informal jobs, after Fay’s PASTEF party won 130 of 165 seats.

Former President John Dramani Mahama has returned to power in Ghana, with voters expressing their anger at the policies of outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo in early December. The National Democratic Congress party, led by 65-year-old Mahama, also won a majority in Parliament.

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Mogomotsi Magome in Johannesburg and Monica Bronczuk in Dakar, Senegal, contributed to this report.

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