I would say that the dovish and hawkish skew for the Fed is taking on less importance than usual in this current setting and will likely be the case as well for next year. As of late, policymakers tend to communicate in a more consistent manner in trying to cement their credibility in the fight against inflation.
The first half of next year will still involve that sort of thinking but even as rates are to move lower, we are likely to hear a more uniform message from the Fed. It’s all about guiding markets in the right direction now, so as to not afford any major screw ups in communication. That seems to be the way that policymakers these days prefer to play things out.
It seems like they are more worried about their image than really trying to stand out and mess with the status quo. But that’s a conversation for another time. For now, let’s take a look at the voting rotation for the FOMC going into next year.
Among the rotating members, it seems like we’re moving from a balance of one more hawkish member to one more dovish member instead. But at this stage as mentioned, it’s all about moving towards a more uniform communication. As such, I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the dovish or hawkish skew in the voting intentions.
