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TD preview the US CPI report due Wednesday

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We review US CPI data scheduled for release on Wednesday.

  • The headline is likely to be +0.3% m/m despite another notable rise in energy prices
  • We expect core inflation to slow to a “soft” pace of 0.3% m/m after recording a third consecutive strong gain of 0.4% in March.
  • Unrounded core CPI forecast of 0.27% m/m suggests greater risk of a cautious surprise for a rounded 0.2% increase

Retail sales also:

  • Retail sales are expected to rise for the third straight month in April, opening the second quarter on a flat footing
  • Volatile automobile and gasoline station sales are likely to provide a major boost to growth
  • The control group also helps drive headline exposure, although it is down compared to March
  • Project sales at bars/restaurants – the only services component of the report – will remain flat

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previously:

  • Bank of America's CPI forecast for April is 0.33% monthly and 3.4% yearly.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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