As the North American session begins, the Japanese yen is the strongest and the Canadian dollar is the weakest. The US dollar is mixed to decline to start the new trading week.
There will be two central bank meetings this week and interest rate announcements. The Bank of Canada on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday are expected to cut interest rates. Later in the week, the US jobs report will be released (on Friday). Estimates indicate a gain of 185,000 compared to 175,000 last month. The employment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%.
If you're looking for Fedspeak, think again. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be held on June 11-12. Although the calendar is now only 9 days away from the meeting, putting the Fed in a blackout period. As a result, no more Fed officials will speak until after the meeting. As for your view of the rules:
- “The blackout period will begin at 12:00 AM Eastern Time on the second Saturday before the Meeting and end at 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the day following the Meeting.
- For example, if a committee meeting begins on a Tuesday, the blackout period will begin at the beginning of the Saturday ten days prior, and if the meeting ends on a Wednesday, the blackout period will end at the end of the day on Thursday.
Today in Europe, PMI data for June was released. The data was mixed. Here is a summary of each:
Spanish Manufacturing PMI (EUR). Beat expectations
- actual: 54.0
- Climate prediction: 52.5
- former: 52.2
- impact: positive; Better than expected.
Swiss Manufacturing PMI (CHF) beat expectations
- actual: 46.4
- Climate prediction: 45.4
- former: 41.4
- impact: positive; Better than expected, indicating improvement.
Italian Manufacturing PMI (EUR) missed expectations
- actual: 45.6
- Climate prediction: 47.9
- former: 47.3
- impact: negative; Worse than expected, indicating deflation.
French Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Disappointed
- actual: 46.4
- Climate prediction: 46.7
- former: 46.7
- impact: somewhat negative; Slightly lower than expectations and previous value, indicating contraction.
Final German Manufacturing PMI (EUR): identical to expectations
- actual: 45.4
- Climate prediction: 45.4
- former: 45.4
- impact: neutral; Matches expectations and previous value, indicating continued deflation.
Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Missing Expectations
- actual: 47.3
- Climate prediction: 47.4
- former: 47.4
- impact: Neutral to slightly negative; Slightly lower than expectations and previous value, indicating contraction.
Final UK Manufacturing PMI (GBP): Disappointed
- actual: 51.2
- Climate prediction: 51.3
- former: 51.3
- impact: somewhat negative; Slightly below expectations and the previous value, indicating a slight expansion.
China PMI data was mixed.
Today the US will release its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data alongside the S&P./Global release:
- The S&P Global Index will be released at 9:45 AM with a forecast of 50.9 vs. initial 50.9.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.8 vs. 49.2+ month. Prices paid are expected to be 60.0 versus 60.9
US construction spending will also be announced at 10am, rising 0.2% versus -0.2% last month.
OPEC+ met with:
- OPEC+ extends the production cuts announced last year until 2025.
- The 1.65 million barrels per day cut, announced in April 2023, has been extended until the end of 2025.
- The production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, announced in November, has been extended until the end of September this year, to be gradually ended by September 2025.
- Previous cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day from 2022 and 2023 remain in place.
- Increasing the UAE’s production share by 300,000 barrels per day, gradually in stages, from January to September 2025.
- OPEC+ will restrict supplies over the next 18 months, with gradual increases in market supply starting later this year.
A snapshot of other markets is shown as the North American session begins
- Crude oil is trading $0.11 or +0.14% higher at $77.10. At this time on Friday, the price was at $77.91
- Gold is trading $2.99, or 0.12%, higher at $2,329.75. At this time on Friday, the price was higher at $2,344.40
- Silver is trading down three cents, or 0.09%, at $30.34. At this time on Friday, the price was at $31.31
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,017. At this time on Friday, the price was trading at $68,395
- Ethereum is trading at fixes and $3,806.02. At this time on Friday, the price is trading at $3,805.50
In the pre-market, major indices shot higher after mixed results on Friday. Thanks to the late-day rally, the Nasdaq closed unchanged. The Standard & Poor's and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose. GameStop shares rise as RoaringKitty returns to play with a massive $20 option position (with a short expiration). Shares are trading at $40.20, up 17.20 cents
- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicate a gain of 15.25 points. On Friday, the index rose 574.84 points, or 1.51%, to 38,686.33 points.
- S&P futures indicate a profit of 14.99 points. Yesterday, the index rose 42.03 points, or 0.80%, to 5,277.50 points.
- Nasdaq futures indicate a gain of 95.10 points. Yesterday, the index decreased by -2.06 points, or -0.01%, to 16,735.02.
European stock indices rose today in the US morning picture:
- German DAX +0.69%
- France CAC, +0.29%
- UK FTSE 100, +0.11%
- Spanish Ibex, +0.66%
- Italian FTSE MIB, +0.65% (10 minutes lag).
Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, +1.13%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.27%
- Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, +1.79%
- Australian S&P/ASX, +0.77%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower to start the week:
- The two-year yield is 4.851%, -4.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.941%.
- The 5-year yield is 4.473%, -5.6 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.579%.
- The 10-year yield is 4.463%, -4.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.556%.
- The 30-year yield is 4.612%, -4.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.683%.
Looking at the Treasury yield curve, spreads are mixed this time on Friday
- The profit margin for 2-10 years is -39.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -38.7 basis points.
- The profit margin for 2-30 years is -24.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -25.9 basis points.
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year bond yields are trading lower::