Here’s how Bitcoin’s current rally stacks up against its previous highs in terms of the pullback it has seen so far.
Bitcoin’s current rally has seen a peak decline of -18.6% so far
In a recent tweet, the on-chain analytics company glass Comparing the latest bitcoin rally to that seen throughout the entire history of the cryptocurrency.
Generally, spikes are compared using metrics such as the percentage of a price spike recorded during it or the amount of time it took (which can be measured in terms of blocks produced, as when looking at cycles in terms of halvings). Here, however, Glassnode has taken a different approach providing a fresh perspective on these walks.
The basis for comparing price hikes here is the decline experienced by each of them over their distances. Note that these pullbacks are not to be confused with the periodic pullbacks used to measure how far the price has fallen since the top of the uptrend.
The withdrawals in question are the hurdles that the cryptocurrency faced while the rallies were still going on, and thus, the ones that the currency eventually managed to overcome.
Here is a chart showing the degree of pullback each of the historical bull markets has experienced, as well as where the current rally stands in comparison to them:
Looks like the value of the metric hasn't been too high for the latest rally so far | Source: Glassnode on Twitter
The five highs here are as follows: 2011 Genesis (first rally), 2011-2013, 2015-2017, 2018-2021 (last rally), and 2022+ cycle (continuing rally).
The analytics firm here has taken the bottom of each of the bear markets as the start of the next bullish impulse. This means that parts of the course that some might not consider part of a proper bull run are also included.
A prime example of this would be the April 2019 rally, which is often seen as its own thing but clashing with the latest Bitcoin bull market in the above chart.
From the chart, it is clear that the deepest decline during the first bull market was -49.4%. The next round, the 2011 to 2013 Bull, hit an even bigger hurdle of -71.2% halfway through it.
The next one (2015-2017) only saw a decline of -36%, but the decline picked up again at -62.6% for the period that followed (ie the recent bull market).
So far in the 2022+ Bitcoin bull market (which would be considered an all-time bull market if the November 2022 low was truly the cyclical bottom), the deepest decline observed to date is the March 2023 plunge of -18.6%.
Clearly, the pullback seen in the current rally so far is much smaller than what historical bull markets have experienced. If the pattern of past waves holds any weight at all, this means that the current bull market should have more potential for growth.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $26,900, down 2% in the past week.
BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
