By Patrick Wingrove and Leroy Liu
(Reuters) – Moderna Inc on Thursday cut its 2024 sales forecast for its COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus vaccines by about 25%, or $1 billion, due to lower COVID sales to the European Union that it expects to continue through 2026.
Shares of the vaccine maker fell more than 15% to $101.01, boosting the company’s market value to $38.71 billion. It had peaked at nearly $200 billion at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in August 2021.
accident Nasdaq said the full-year outlook cut was also due to potential revenue deferrals for some international Covid sales into 2025 and an increasingly competitive environment for Covid and RSV vaccines in the United States.
The company had previously said it expected sales of about $4 billion this year, which is already the lowest annual revenue figure since it launched its Covid vaccine in late 2020 — the company’s first commercial product.
Moderna said it now expects to generate sales of between $3 billion and $3.5 billion for the year.
Moderna CFO James Mock said in an interview that the international revenue deferral was one of the biggest factors in the $500 million range the company provided in its new 2024 sales forecast.
CEO Stephane Bancel said during a conference call with analysts that the company expects Covid vaccine sales in the European Union to also be low over the next two years, limited by Pfizer (NYSE:) with the region, which expires in 2026.
Bancel said they are in discussions with European countries interested in providing Covid vaccine options in addition to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
The company is still in discussions with the EU about 2024, Mook told Reuters.
“Given where we are in the season as well as where we are in the budget season for many countries and their current supplies, we feel there is a very low probability that we will have significant sales (in the EU) in 2024,” he said.
The company also assumes that U.S. COVID vaccination rates for the fall campaign using the updated shots will be similar to last year’s rates.
Moderna has been generating revenue from newer mRNA vaccines, including the RSV vaccine mRESVIA and an experimental combination vaccine against COVID-19.
The new forecast means the company’s net loss and cash burn — which are already at levels that are worrying investors — will increase, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said in a research note.
The company said it expects its total cash flow to reach $9 billion by the end of this year, down from $13.3 billion at the end of 2023, and to range between $6 billion and $7 billion by the end of 2025.
Analysts had expected $370 million in sales for mRESVIA, Moderna’s second product that won U.S. approval in late May, this year. Shipments began last month but are expected to lag behind RSV vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.
Moderna’s Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine sales came in at $184 million for the quarter, down 37% from a year earlier but well above analysts’ average estimate of $66.42 million.
Moderna reported a net loss of $1.3 billion, or $3.33 per share, in the second quarter. Analysts had expected a loss of $3.39 per share.
