Daily Broad Market Recap – October 24, 2024

The market was focused on the rapid global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports, which showed mixed results across major economies.

How did asset classes and currencies perform?

Check out the latest headlines that influenced the price action:

Titles:

• Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 46.7 to 46.6 in October, and the services PMI rose from 50.5 to 50.6
• Japanese Manufacturing PMI au Jibun flash Decreased from 49.7 to 49.0 in October (49.9 forecast)
• Japanese monetary authorities are trying to unseal the currency:
  • CFO Kato says there are rapid movements in the forex market, and warns of a weaker yen
  • Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said the government is closely monitoring foreign currency movements, including speculative movements.
• October PMI readings in the Eurozone were mixed:
  • French HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.5 instead of rising to 44.9 (previous reading was upgraded from 44.0 to 44.6)
  • French HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.3 instead of the consensus 49.8 (previous reading revised from 48.3 to 49.6)
  • The German HCOB Manufacturing PMI jumped from 40.6 to 42.6, beating the 40.7 estimate, and the Flash Services PMI rose from 50.6 to 51.4 (consensus 50.6).
  • Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI rose from 45.0 to 49.9 (consensus 45.1); Flash Services PMI fell from 51.4 upgraded to 51.2 (consensus 51.5)
• UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October Decreased from 51.5 to 50.3 (consensus 51.5); Flash Services PMI fell from 52.4 to 51.8 (expect 52.3)
• EU Industrial Orders Expectations Index rose from -35 to -27 (negotiated -28) but production volumes remain lower
• US Secretary of State Blinken He noted that some progress had been made in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas
• Weekly initial unemployment claims in the United States At 224K in the week ending October 17 (243K expected, 242K previously)
• US Manufacturing PMI for October improved from 47.3 to 47.8 (expect 47.5); Flash Services PMI rose from 55.2 to 55.3 (55.0 expected)
• US new home sales rose from 709K to 738K (consensus 719K) in September
• UK GfK consumer confidence index falls from -20 to -21 in October (expect -20) as potential tax rises weigh on sentiment

Broad market price movement:

Little risk-on was seen in the markets in recent trading sessions, with commodities and Bitcoin rising at the start of the Asian session, while the US dollar and Treasury yields moved south for most of the day.

Additional volatility occurred in crude oil around the release of flash Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers, as mixed results were seen from the region’s largest economies, but the commodity eventually peaked around $72.25 per barrel and then suffered a nasty decline during market hours in London. .

As it turned out, US Secretary of State Blinken indicated that some progress had been made in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, easing concerns about global oil supplies.

Little bounce was seen around the release of better-than-expected US initial jobless claims data, although risk assets fell on the release of preliminary US PMI numbers. Tesla’s stronger-than-expected earnings numbers pushed US stock indexes higher near the close, allowing the Nasdaq to gain 0.8% and the S&P 500 to end a three-day losing streak.

Forex market behavior: US dollar against major currencies:

Overlay of the US dollar against major currencies Chart by TradingView

After making some gains against the yen, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar, the US dollar fell throughout the Asian trading session, as investors appeared to be in a better mood for risk. The yen took another hit during the release of Japan’s weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI, but the currency continued to advance against the dollar for the rest of the session.

The EUR/USD pair fell into negative territory when French manufacturing and services PMIs came in below estimates, but the common currency quickly regained strength after Germany’s results came in better than expected. The UK economy also reported weaker than expected PMI readings, but the pound struggled to hold its ground against the dollar during market hours in London.

Lower-than-expected US initial jobless claims allowed the dollar to recover across the board later, extending its rally against commodity currencies, the pound and the Swiss franc after US manufacturing and services PMIs came in broadly in line with estimates. However, price action was mixed among the rest of the major currencies, with the yen and euro making further gains.

Potential catalysts coming on the economic calendar:

• Lined up Chinese FDI data
• German Ifo Business Climate Index at 8:00 AM GMT
• Canada address and basic retail sales 12:30 pm GMT
• US headlines and core durable goods orders at 12:30 PM GMT
• Bank of England monetary policy report hearings are coming
• Revised US Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan at 2:00 PM GMT

Price action could calm down after yesterday’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) chaos, as the economic calendar only contains a few notable catalysts. This includes Consumer spending data in CanadaAnd also Bank of England monetary policy report hearingsThis may lead to additional volatility for the CAD and GBP pairs.

As always, keep an eye on the headlines affecting overall market sentiment, and don’t forget to check out our brand new Forex Correlation Calculator!