Someone is looking for a safe haven.
A strong bid has emerged in gold and bonds in the last hour and it’s not clear why. Gold has jumped $13 to $2037, which is the highest since February 7. It’s a sharp turnaround as just a few hours ago, gold was testing the lows of the week.
gold 4 hour chart
In the bond market, US 10-year yields are now down 7.1 bps on the day to 4.25%, which is now just 1 bps above where they finished last week.
US 10s daily
US equities have given back gains but it’s tough to imagine that a 0.2% decline in the Nasdaq is a good reason for a flight to safety. The price action looks like a market that’s worried about weekend risk but with Israel-Hamas meeting in Paris today, I’d guess there are more positive risks than negative ones.
On the Fed side, I don’t see a reason for this either. Yes, they’ve been quick to brush off CPI but they’re focused on data and there’s no reason to think the US is about to stumble (though it could certainly happen).
I’m at a bit of a loss for what’s driving this move.
