AI and Ozempic Were Europe’s Winning 2023 Stock Market Themes While Luxury Stalled

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(Bloomberg) — The frenzy around weight-loss drugs and artificial intelligence, followed by a late-year market rally, made 2023 memorable for European stocks. For investors in renewables and some big luxury names, it was more of a year to forget.

“Winners — and losers — have reflected global trends rather than local macro events,” said Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes. The hype around obesity drugs that boosted Novo Nordisk A/S has been a worldwide phenomenon, while moves in luxury shares were driven by concerns about China’s economy.

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Lewis sees grounds for the rally to continue into 2024, but cautioned that risk appetite “remains fragile,” a sentiment shared by Emma Wall, head of investment analysis and research at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Any economic wobble will hit tech and growth stocks hardest, and hot money will flow to lower risk assets,” Wall said.

Here’s a look at some of the biggest winners and losers of 2023:

Rolls-Royce Triples

Significant headwinds facing engine maker Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc in 2022 became tailwinds this year, fueling a 220% gain. Orders boomed as the post-pandemic recovery in air travel proved stronger than expected, while a turnaround strategy and targets for higher cashflow boosted confidence in the company. Next year, investors will be watching to see if Rolls-Royce manages to achieve its goal of returning to investment grade status.

AI Boosts Chip Equipment Stocks

Shares in BE Semiconductor Industries NV and ASM International NV more than doubled, with both seen as winners of the AI craze and the race to produce smaller, faster chips. ASML Holding NV, one of Europe’s biggest companies, also had a good year — though it now faces the challenge of navigating an expanding trade war between the US and China.

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Novo as Europe’s Biggest Company

Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy became synonymous with the hype surrounding weight-loss drugs this year, with some analysts predicting the market could reach $100 billion by 2030. A 49% gain for the shares pushed the Danish company above LVMH to become the biggest European firm by market value. But things may get more difficult from here, with rising competition from other pharmaceutical firms and a valuation that some now see as stretched.

Retail Stocks Rebound

After a dismal 2022, retail stocks came back with a vengeance in 2023. The sector has surged 35%, making it the top-performing subgroup this year, with gains led by Hennes & Mauritz AB and Zara-owner Inditex SA. Retailers were helped by pent-up demand and slowing inflation, though slowing global growth and the lagged impact of interest rate hikes may hit consumer spending next year.

Renewable Energy Correction

Green energy stocks slid in 2023 as higher interest rates pushed up financing costs for wind and solar developments, while the rising cost of materials used to make turbines added to woes. Orsted AS, which took a huge impairment on abandoned wind projects, and Siemens Energy AG, which sought government help to shore up its finances, both slumped by about a third. Still, Vestas Wind Systems A/S fared better — with a recent outlook boost helping the shares to a gain of 6.4% this year.

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Luxury Rally Stalls

A seemingly unstoppable rally for luxury stocks stalled in 2023 as China’s economy stumbled, while higher interest rates and inflation put pressure on consumers everywhere. But there’s been a wide range within the sector — with Gucci-owner Kering SA and trench-coat maker Burberry Group Plc sliding by double-digit percentages, but LVMH ending the year 7.5% higher. First-quarter results will be closely watched, with investors expecting a weak start to 2024 before a revival in the second half.

Read: Luxury’s Year of Changing Fortunes Set for Reverse Act in 2024

Bayer’s Bad Week

Bayer AG’s 31% drop made it one of the worst-performing stocks in Europe this year, with a big chunk of losses happening during one week in November. Around €7.6 billion ($8.4 billion) in value was wiped out in a day after a shock jury verdict in litigation over Roundup weedkiller, coupled with news that Bayer is stopping studies for an important drug. Next year is tough to predict, with Bloomberg reporting that the firm hired several teams of bankers to game out various breakup scenarios.

Sweden’s SBB Sinks

Swedish landlord Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB, or SBB, fell 70%, losing its place in Europe’s benchmark index. While many other European real estate firms have seen late-year rallies amid hopes that interest rates have peaked, investors are still nervous about Swedish property firms, which need to refinance or repay about $12 billion of bonds and hybrid debt in 2024.

—With assistance from Allegra Catelli and Henry Ren.

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