By Joanna Pluchinska and Lisa Barrington
LONDON/SEOUL (Reuters) – Singapore Airlines, British Airways and Lufthansa have increased their flights over Afghanistan after years of largely avoiding it now that conflict in the Middle East has made it a relatively safe option.
Most airlines stopped flying over Afghanistan, which lies on key routes between Asia and Europe, three years ago when the Taliban took power and air traffic control services were halted.
Those services have yet to resume, but airlines increasingly view the airspace between Iran and Israel as more dangerous than Afghan airspace. Several airlines have begun flying over Iran and the Middle East after Russian airspace was closed to most Western carriers when the Ukraine war began in 2022.
“As conflicts evolve, the calculations for airspace use have changed,” said Ian Petchenek, a spokesman for flight tracking organisation Flightradar24. “Airlines are looking to mitigate risk as much as possible and see flying over Afghanistan as the safest option given the current tensions between Iran and Israel.”
The number of flights over Afghanistan in the second week of August was more than seven times the number during the same period last year, according to a Reuters analysis of FlightRadar24 data.
The shift began in mid-April, during an exchange of missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel. Flight tracking data from that time shows that Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, British Airways and others began flying a few flights a day over Afghanistan.
But the main growth has come since the killing of senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah in late July, raising fears of a major escalation.
Some pilots are worried.
“You depend on the analysis of the airline you are dealing with,” said Otjan de Bruyn, a commercial pilot and president of the European Cockpit Association. “Every time I fly there, I don’t like the feeling of flying over a conflict zone where you don’t really know what’s going on.”
“It’s always safe enough, until proven otherwise.”
Germany’s Lufthansa Group told Reuters it has decided to resume flights over Afghan airspace from early July.
Other airlines that have increased flights since April include Turkish Airlines, Thai Airways and Air France-KLM Group, the data showed.
“Based on actual security information, KLM and other airlines are currently flying safely over Afghanistan on specific routes and at high altitudes only,” KLM told Reuters.
British Airways, Thai Airways, Turkish Airlines and Singapore Airlines did not respond to requests for comment.
Taiwanese carrier EVA Air began flying in late July, flight tracking data showed. EVA told Reuters it selects routes based on safety, the current international situation and aviation warnings.
The role of organization
The rerouting has been facilitated by aviation regulators relaxing their guidance on Afghanistan.
The US Federal Aviation Administration said in early July that aircraft could fly at a lower altitude over a strip of northeastern Afghanistan, the Wakhan Corridor, which is used to cross from Tajikistan into Pakistan, opening up the route to more types of flights.
A year earlier, the Federal Aviation Administration lifted its ban on flights over the entire country, but said planes must stay above 32,000 feet (9,753.6 meters) where surface-to-air weapons are less effective.
But few people started using Afghanistan until April.
Although more air traffic was using the airspace without incident, there was no guarantee that the crew or passengers would be safe if the plane had to land, aviation safety group OPSGROUP said in July.
In the absence of air traffic control, pilots crossing Afghanistan talk to nearby aircraft via radio according to a protocol established by the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization and the Afghan Civil Aviation Authority.
“Non-state extremist groups remain active and may intermittently target aviation facilities in a variety of ways,” the European Aviation Safety Agency said in a conflict zone information bulletin re-issued in July.
The memory of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, haunts the industry as fighting raged between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces.
Cost and limited choice
Airlines are under pressure to save money after losing many shorter routes over Russian airspace since 2022, and as they rebuild after the pandemic.
There are few international rules defining safe airspace areas, leaving flight safety decisions largely to the discretion of individual airlines.
If an airline cannot fly via Russia, Ukraine or Iran, central Afghanistan offers a more direct route to South Asia than Europe.
“This route has saved us a lot of time and fuel,” said an Opus Group report of a pilot who traveled in July from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur via central Afghanistan.
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