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Since ChatGPT was introduced in late 2022, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) With the support of its creator, generative AI is taking on the world and its broader implications for the global economy and society as a whole. While some research companies We believe generative AI can do this Heart of each sectorUBS believes that enthusiasm may need to moderate – even if just a little.
“We are witnessing the beginning of a major investment boom and technological advance that may impact fundamentally all sectors of the economy,” UBS wrote in a note to investors. “However, use cases need further development to justify these investments.”
Estimates vary on how much investment AI will generate, but most believe it will result in trillions of dollars in additional investment over the next decade, UBS said. As such, the implications for businesses, workers and investors are enormous.
“Although it is too early to precisely quantify the overall productivity improvements from AI, anecdotal evidence suggests significant efficiency gains,” UBS wrote. “For example, developers code up to 55% faster using GitHub Copilot8. Boston Consulting Group estimates that customer service operations will become 30-50% more efficient when generative AI is implemented at scale.”
Companies likely to benefit from increased AI spending in the three layers (enablement, intelligence, and applications) include Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft, Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA), UBS said: Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Baidu (BIDU), Alibaba (BABA), and Huawei.
Analysts at the company have made a series of predictions about how AI will reshape the global economy and its broader implications.
1. Artificial intelligence will be the most profound innovation and one of the largest investment opportunities in human history.
2. AI will start a data center capex cycle that will dwarf general purpose data center capex in the coming years.
3. The ratio of monetization of the AI application layer to the costs of the enablement and intelligence layers will become a key measure of investment returns.
4. The race to artificial general intelligence could lead to a capex cycle that inflates an investment bubble as the capex of the enabling layer is disconnected from the near-term monetization potential of the application layer.
5. AI enablers will be the first to adopt AI, leading to increased revenue and margin.
6. Homogeneous players will emerge along the AI value chain, and over time, the AI market will be dominated by an oligopoly of vertically integrated “AI foundries.”
7. AI Silicon Moment: AI chips will capture a large portion of AI value creation.
8. Application and intelligence layers will be integrated with AGI.
9. Software will become ubiquitous.
10. Data assets will emerge as competitive advantages for IT that embraces AI.