There are a series of calls for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates for the RBNZ meeting next week:
TD Bank expects to cut its interest rate by 50 basis points next week as well, but added that they expect the same size of cut at the November meeting.
Analysts at TD are maintaining their expectations for a 50 basis point cut in the overnight cash rate (OCR) at next week’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR). However, they have revised their forecast for the November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) meeting, now expecting a larger cut of 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25 basis points.
Looking ahead to 2025, analysts expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to implement successive interest rate cuts, bringing the OCR to 3% by its August meeting. This represents a shift from their previous forecast, which had expected the RBNZ to reach 3% with cuts only introduced at MPS meetings over 2025 and 2026.
Bond forecasts saw slight revisions, given analysts’ previous bullish stance on interest rates. They see limited potential for a significant rise in interest rates based on local conditions.