As we enter 2025, it is time to take a thoughtful and analytical approach to what this year may hold for Bitcoin. Taking into account on-chain data, market cycle, macroeconomic data, and further convergence, we can go beyond pure speculation to paint a data-driven picture of the coming months.
MVRV Z-Score: Lots of upside potential
the MVRV Z-score It measures the ratio between the realized price of Bitcoin (the average acquisition price of all Bitcoins on the network) and its market value. Standardizing this ratio to volatility gives us the Z-Score, which historically provides a clear picture of market cycles.
Currently, the MVRV Z-Score indicates that we still have significant upside potential. While previous cycles have seen Z-Score values reach above 7, I believe that anything above 6 indicates overextension, prompting a closer look at other metrics to determine a market peak. Right now, we’re hovering at levels similar to May 2017 – when Bitcoin was valued at just a few thousand dollars. Given the historical context, there is room for hundreds of potential gains from current levels.
Pi Cycle Oscillator: Resuming bullish momentum
Another essential measure is Pi Cycle upper and lower indicatorr, which tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historically, when these averages intersect, it often indicates that the Bitcoin price will peak within days.
The distance between these two moving averages has started to trend upward again, indicating renewed bullish momentum. While 2024 has seen periods of sideways consolidation, the breakout we are seeing now suggests that Bitcoin is entering a stronger growth phase, likely to last several months.
Exponential phase of the cycle
Given Bitcoin’s historical price action, cycles are often characterized by a “post-halving cool-off” period lasting 6-12 months before entering an exponential growth phase. Based on previous coursesWe are approaching this breakout point. While returns are expected to diminish compared to previous cycles, we can still see significant gains.
For context, breaking the previous all-time high of $20,000 in the 2020 cycle led to a peak near $70,000 – an increase of 3.5 times. If we see even a conservative 2x or 3x rise from the recent peak of $70,000, Bitcoin could realistically reach $140,000-$210,000 this cycle.
Macro factors supporting BTC in 2025
Despite the headwinds in 2024, Bitcoin has performed strongly, even in the face of consolidation US Dollar Index (DXY). Historically, Bitcoin and DXY move inversely, so any reversal in DXY strength could further drive Bitcoin’s price higher.
Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and global money supply M2, point to improving conditions for Bitcoin. The contraction in money supply seen in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, paving the way for a more favorable environment.
Course Masterplan: A Long Way to Go
the Bitcoin Master Course The chart, which aggregates multiple on-chain valuation metrics, shows that Bitcoin still has plenty of room to grow before reaching overvaluation. The upper bound, currently around $190,000, continues to rise, reinforcing expectations of continued bullish momentum.
conclusion
Currently, almost all data points are aligned with a bullish 2025. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, however, the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin’s best days may still lie ahead, even beyond an incredibly positive 2024.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin 2025 – data-driven forecast
For a more detailed analysis of Bitcoin and to access advanced features such as live charts, custom trend alerts, and in-depth industry reports, see Bitcoin Pro Magazine.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.