On Monday, Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, an influential New York-based investment management firm with $89.5 billion in assets under management, discussed the current state of the bitcoin market. As the sixth-largest issuer of spot ETFs in the United States, with $497 million in recent inflows, VanEck’s analysis of bitcoin is particularly noteworthy.
in NB For clients, Sigel participated on X, where he provided insights into the current factors driving Bitcoin price volatility. He attributes the downward pressure of the past few days primarily to large Bitcoin sales by government entities and concerns about the imminent massive distributions from Mt. Gox ownership.
“The Mt Gox trustee currently holds approximately $8 billion in bitcoin and has moved to distribute approximately $3 billion of the $8 billion,” Siegel explained. He expressed uncertainty about whether creditors, who are due to receive the distributions in early July, will sell or hold onto their bitcoin. “Given the precedent set by GBTC, we expect at least a quarter of these bitcoins to be held,” he added.
Siegel also explained the impact of recent moves by the US and German governments on Bitcoin. According to data from Arcam, Germany has liquidated more than half of the 50,000 bitcoins initially stolen from the Movie2k pirate site.
The announced sale has spooked the market, and comes at a time when the US government has also reduced its holdings of Bitcoin. The government currently holds about 213,297 Bitcoin (about $12 billion). Siegel pointed to a large $240 million transfer to Coinbase Prime on June 26, which likely signals the sale. He also commented on the strategic implications of the sale, noting that it likely occurred during a market period sensitive to liquidity, such as the Fourth of July holiday in the US.
“This weak price action likely reflects malicious government selling in a relatively weak Fourth of July market, with more selling likely to follow,” Siegel noted. Siegel also pointed to recent speculation by Trump advisers about the creation of a U.S. government strategic reserve of bitcoin, as Forbes reported , which could signal a major shift in policy.
Why VanEck Remains Cautious But Bullish on Bitcoin
Speaking about broader market trends, Siegel noted that during bull market phases, Bitcoin rarely dips below its 200-day moving average (MAVG) for more than six weeks. However, the recent government sales could change this pattern if they continue or are exacerbated by other negative news.
Despite these pressures, Siegel remains optimistic about macroeconomic conditions, pointing to slowing inflation and a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy. “The upcoming election could spur new record highs in Bitcoin as the market prices in another four years of deficit spending and a potentially more friendly U.S. regulatory backdrop under the Trump administration,” he speculated.
Globally, Bitcoin adoption is accelerating, particularly in emerging and frontier markets. Siegel highlighted recent initiatives by Kenya, Ethiopia, and Argentina to tap into government-owned energy resources for Bitcoin mining, indicating a growing awareness of Bitcoin’s utility and potential value.
In closing, Siegel reiterated VanEck’s investment strategy, calling for a disciplined approach to allocating Bitcoin across diversified portfolios. “We continue to recommend a dollar-cost averaging strategy for Bitcoin, with 6% being a reasonable size for Bitcoin and Ethereum positions in most 60/40-measured portfolios,” he said.
At the time of publishing this report, BTC was trading at $57,252.
Featured image created using DALL E, chart from TradingView.com