IATA scheme
Global air travel is perhaps the single best indicator of the effects of the coronavirus and the latest data shows that we are on the cusp of a full correction.
The May report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows passenger mileage at 96.1% of the pre-pandemic level, which is up 39.1% year-on-year. I highly doubt the job was completed in June or July.
What is notable is the drift in traffic and the risks later on. Domestic air travel has surpassed pre-virus levels for a second month but international travel is still down 9.2%. Part of that is slower Asian client returns and concerns when booking vacations, but there’s also an element missing from business travel.
The rise of remote work has curbed the demand for business travel and is currently being replaced by revenge travel after the pandemic. Over time, travel demand may saturate and this will cause travel to stabilize at lower levels, or at least a lower route than before the pandemic. Hotels face the same question but for now, the return to the office and international business travel has some momentum.