Written by Reham Al-Koussa, Lily Foroudi, and David Latona
BERLIN/PARIS/MADRID (Reuters) – Nader Aslam, a German of Moroccan-Pakistani origin, had planned to vote for the Green Party in this week's European Parliament elections. Instead, he will throw his support behind Mera25, an emerging left-wing party with a clear pro-Palestinian stance.
Aslam (33 years old) told Reuters that this was a speech given last November by a leader from the Green Party in which he affirmed German support for Israel, even as the death toll in Gaza approached 9,000, which “destroyed” his support for the Environment Party, which is a member of the ruling coalition in Germany. .
This shift in support, which has reverberated across Europe, represents the latest threat – this time from the left – to mainstream political parties whose project of deepening European integration is already under attack from the far right.
This trend is not limited only to Muslim communities in the European Union, but also among left-leaning voters who see a double standard in Europe's condemnation of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, but the failure to criticize Israel for its military attack on Gaza that led to the death of… More people. More than 36 thousand Palestinians.
“We have a rise in far-right and far-left parties, (which will) reshape the political landscape in Europe, and the balance of power between many parties,” said Samira Azbar, a sociologist at Radboud University in the Netherlands.
She said this could have consequences for the EU's position on Israel and also push for policies giving more decision-making power at the national level. Spain and Ireland, members of the European Union, recognized the Palestinian state, as well as the government of Slovenia, pending parliamentary approval.
polarization
While the popularity of the far right has been on the rise in recent years, surveys show that minorities vote more for the far left with major parties drifting to the right on issues such as immigration and cultural values.
An Ipsos poll last month showed that the far right would make the biggest gains in the elections scheduled for June 6-9, with the left group in the European Union Assembly gaining an additional six seats – at the expense of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Renew Europe Party. . Blocks.
In France, the far-left “France Proud” party focused its campaign on a pro-Palestinian stance in an attempt to win over Muslim and far-left voters, said Blandine Cellini Pont, a historian at Aix-Marseille University.
It seeks an arms embargo, sanctions on Israel, recognition of a Palestinian state, and, in contrast to other left-wing groups, refrains from describing Hamas as a terrorist group. Among Muslim voters in France, the support rate is 44%, compared to a share of 8% of the total electorate.
“Some will say we are browsing voters, but who are we talking about? These are citizens of this country who do not have a racist vision of society,” LFI lawmaker Sebastian Deluge told Reuters.
The French Socialists also seek recognition of a Palestinian state, but do not share the Front's position on Hamas.
“LFI has a relationship with violence and it is not okay,” Raphael Glucksmann, the leading Socialist candidate, told Reuters, adding that his rise in the polls to third place with 14% was partly due to his choice to distance himself from LFI.
Historical factors
In Germany, emerging pro-Palestinian parties are eroding support for the German Greens and the Social Democrats, two of the main parties that have maintained strong support for Israel because of Germany's historical responsibility for the Holocaust.
Aside from the left-wing Mera25 party, other pro-Palestinian startups include socially conservative groups such as DAVA, BIG and the Eurosceptic party BSW – which wants to impose an arms embargo on Israel while pushing anti-immigration policies.
BSW supporters, who poll at 7%, are 50% more likely to recognize Palestinian statehood than German voters overall.
In Spain, where tensions with Israel date back to the era of Franco's dictatorship, the government's recognition of a Palestinian state bolsters support for parties in the ruling coalition, the Socialist Party, and the far-left Somar Party.
“The Palestinian issue has become the focus of political debate in Spain,” said David Hernandez, professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid.
Mobilizing minority voices
Voter turnout could be key.
Radboud University's Azbar noted that turnout in EU elections was often lower among ethnic minorities than in the general population, but the Gaza war may be a trigger this time.
Foreign policy issues have a long track record of influencing the vote of ethnic minorities. In 2016, Germany's Social Democratic Party lost about 100,000 Turkish voters after recognizing the Armenian genocide in World War I, said Tevik Ozcan, head of DAVA, a new party targeting Turkish voters in the diaspora.
Ozcan, a former member of the Social Democratic Party, said his party offered a protest vote option that did not exist until now.
“Germans have the opportunity to say: OK, I will vote for the (far-right) AfD in protest.” “Muslims cannot do that,” he told Reuters.
A poll conducted by the Institute of Political Science at the University of Duisburg-Essen last December showed that one in three German Muslims do not feel represented in any party.
The new sense of political representation resonates with French voters as well. LFI has nominated French-Palestinian lawyer Rima Hassan, who attends protests, is active on social media and is petitioning the European Union to suspend the Association Agreement with Israel.
Shama Tahiri Evora, a 34-year-old French-Moroccan chef, said she had never voted in any European elections but would this time.
“Voting for Rima is an act of resistance,” she said. “I don't know all the points about the LFI program but what it and its other members say about Palestine is fair.”