Analyst Look at Historical Price Patterns

Bitcoin is currently down 23% from its all-time high, with most of those losses coming in the past week.

The summer crash was expected on the basis that the four-year cycle was too early to peak.

On July 7, market analyst Benjamin Coon looked to the Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) as a key technical indicator to determine whether the asset will recover later this year.

BMSB Leading Indicator

The analyst compared current trends with historical patterns from 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2023, and specifically examined BTC’s relationship with BMSB.

He points out that Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 2024 may depend on whether it can rise above BMSB in the coming weeks.

In 2023, Bitcoin dropped below BMSB in August, stayed below it for a few weeks, and then surged in Q4. However, after falling below this level, the asset continued to decline in Q4 2019.

He said the peak of the cycle usually comes in the fourth quarter of the year following the halving, which will be in 2025, before concluding that anything could still happen:

“If we follow 2019, BMSB should hold resistance. If we follow 2013, 2016, and 2023, BTC should return above BMSB soon.”

We’ve talked a lot about the idea of #Bitcoin The summer lull was too soon. Now that it’s here, what happens next?

I think what happens in Q4 2024 depends on whether #Bitcoin The stock may be able to return above the bull market support range in the next few weeks, or if it holds resistance.

Thread 👇

— Benjamin Cowan (@intocryptoverse) July 7, 2024

Fellow Analyst, Rect Capital Note On July 8, Bitcoin was about to make its first weekly candle close below the lower re-accumulation range for the first time in more than four months of the range’s existence.

The asset has been trading sideways within this range since late February but has now lost support and dropped below it.

Analytics platform CryptoQuant has advised caution after noting that long liquidations have been the largest this year.

“However, we cannot easily conclude that ‘now that we have seen a long and massive liquidation, we will go up again,’” the analysts warned before adding, “This is because it took a few months (from August to October in 2023) before the price started to rise again.”

Market Crushing Leads to Massive Long Liquidations

“at recent days Bitcoin The price drop was devastating for long position holders. As you can see, the volume of long liquidations is the largest ever recorded over the past year. @Market Maker Copy

Link 👇https://t.co/xFKl5iyOrC pic.twitter.com/UNhebMTND3

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 8, 2024

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Consensus seems to be pointing to a more bearish trend and possibly another decline before consolidation for several months, followed by another move in Q4.

Bitcoin has recovered $57,000 at the time of writing after falling to $54,320 during the Asian trading session on Monday morning.

There is support at the $51,500 level on the downside but an upward move would require a break of the $60,000 resistance levels to advance further.

Moreover, US inflation reports coming out this week could lead to further volatility in the already volatile crypto markets.