This article is also available in Spanish.
Bitcoin may be stuck in a downtrend, but fundamental analysis suggests it is in a healthy position. According to a recent analysis by crypto analyst Kaleo, Bitcoin is currently recording healthier dynamics than it did during the previous halving cycle. This interesting outlook for Bitcoin comes amid the cryptocurrency’s struggle to Stability above $54,000 and $57,000 level crossed.
Bitcoin is in a healthier position
Kaleo conducted an analysis of Bitcoin, published on social media platform X, comparing the current Bitcoin price performance since the last halving in April 2024 with its performance after the previous halving in May 2020. It has already been 141 days since the last halving, but the Bitcoin price has not yet reached the expectations that many had expected.
Related reading
The analyst noted that Bitcoin is currently trading 19% below its all-time high of $69,434 reached during the last market cycle. While some may interpret this weak performance as a sign of a prolonged downtrend, Kallio noted that Bitcoin is still holding up well. That’s because, at the same time, after the halving in 2020, Bitcoin is already down 46% from its 2018 high. This historical context underscores Bitcoin’s stronger position today despite its current struggle to break significantly above that.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,616. The lack of sustained bullish momentum since August has led many crypto analysts to scale back their once-bullish forecasts. Now, a number of bullish predictions have emerged. Negative and bearish expectations Due to the current market situation.
However, Kallio reminds us of similar sentiments to those that dominated the market shortly after the halving in 2020. At the time, negative expectations were prevalent. Many market participants expressed their doubts and negative expectations about the future of Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin bulls eventually defied these expectations, pushing the cryptocurrency’s market cap past the trillion-dollar mark for the first time. This also led to a significant surge in Value of many altcoins And the emergence of new sectors such as NFTs.
What if I told you that Bitcoin is in a healthier position now than it was when it was at the same point after the halving last cycle?
It is currently down only about 19% from the last cycle high (141 days after the halving).
In 2020, it is down about 46% from its 141-day post-halving high in 2018.… pic.twitter.com/tZ0mFey15I
— Kaleo (@CryptoKaleo) September 9, 2024
What’s next for Bitcoin?
Kaleo’s analysis suggests that despite the current pessimism, history may repeat itself, and Bitcoin will once again become a Rise above market expectationsFurthermore, the analyst suggests that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is Now in a better place To support the price rise more strongly. For example, institutional investors are now able to efficiently invest in BTC through spot Bitcoin ETFs. The regulatory clarity surrounding the crypto industry has also improved significantly in the past four years.
Related reading
Another analyst, Rect Capital, The previous half has been checked. Some have suggested that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s next rally could come in October, a month that has historically been a strong one for Bitcoin. History also shows The market is expected to peak between 518 and 546 days after the halving in April.
Featured image created using Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com