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From hotly debated Tesla (TSLA) and more recently Wall Street darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional powerhouses have turned into electric car startups. GM (GM) and Ford (F) To the many SPAC dealmakers that have gone public in this very hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly digest of the most important news and expert calls in the sector.
Fourth quarter deliveries: Barclays expects Tesla to report fourth-quarter deliveries of 515,000 units, up 6% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate of 511,000 units. A win could keep the stock’s narrative momentum strong, but focus on Tesla’s fundamentals is generally limited, the company tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes the slight decline in volume in the near term “will likely do little to dampen” Tesla’s push for self-driving vehicles and artificial intelligence, which it says has recently come into greater focus ahead of a planned “unsupervised FSD” launch in 2025. Conversely, there is a slight decrease in volume. The company adds that a win in Q4 will likely be insignificant for the majority of Tesla’s current bull case. It maintains an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a price target of $270.
Not positive: Barclays also said it believes the post-election rally in Tesla shares reflects a “sharp disconnect” between the stock and the company’s fundamentals. Technology and options play a big role in the rally, the company tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Tesla shares are now better aligned with cryptocurrencies. There are few additional positives to Tesla’s fundamentals from the election, but Elon Musk’s premium is now high, the company asserts. She adds that the past six weeks “serve as a reminder that Tesla remains the king of the narrative within the market, while ignoring the fundamentals.”
While consensus earnings estimates for 2025 have risen slightly in the past six weeks, Tesla’s multiple has increased to a “frothy” figure of 145 times 2025 numbers, up from 80 times just before the election, Barclays notes. He describes Trump’s stance as “not as positive as you think” on Tesla’s fundamentals. The company maintains an Equal Weight rating to Tesla with a price target of $270.
By publishing: Tesla is in early talks with authorities in Austin, Texas, about self-driving vehicle technology, Bloomberg’s Kara Carlson reports. A Tesla employee has been in contact with the city’s autonomous vehicle task force since at least May to set safety expectations for the vehicles, the report says, citing emails obtained through public records requests.
Click here to check out Tesla’s recent media buzz sentiment as measured by TipRanks.
Solar industry: Roth MKM notes that US active anode material producers have filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions against imports of active anode material from China with alleged average dumping margins ranging from 828% to 921%, adding that the company believes this case could have a “ “Wide range of effects” The petition covers the active anode material regardless of whether it is imported independently, as part of a compound, or in a battery.
Roth, who believes the anode typically represents about 10% to 15% of a battery’s cost, says the potential added tariff cost could be “devastating for the industry” and negative for suppliers who get anode materials from China, directly or indirectly. Some of the names that the company says may be affected include Fluence Energy (FLNC), It stems (STEM), Enphase (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG), Energy Vault (NRGV), Clearway Energy (CWEN), Enlight (ENLT), Ormat (ORA), Sunnova (NOVA), and Sunrun (RUN).
Buy Cenron: TD Cowen initiated coverage of Sunrun with a Buy rating and a price target of $21. The company is positioned to drive contracted subscriber value growth, supported by higher levels of battery attachments and investment tax credit levels along with absorption of fixed costs, through its significant and “leading” market share of residential solar financiers, the company tells investors In a research note. Sunrun will raise non-recourse debt against contracted subscriber value, providing confidence that 2025 cash generation targets can be met, says TD Cowen.
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