As US Vote Nears, Ukraine’s Allies Worry About What Comes Next

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Russia continues its slow advance across the entire frontline in Ukraine as the U.S. election approaches, the outcome of which will have major implications for Kiev’s ability to fight.

Western officials, who declined to be named while discussing sensitive information, said the Russian army will still be able to make tactical gains on the battlefield despite new record losses. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that Russia was now suffering about 1,200 casualties in Ukraine every day.

Article content

Russian forces continue to advance in the eastern Donetsk region, control of which remains Moscow’s immediate strategic goal. The town of Voledar, its stronghold, recently fell into Moscow’s hands, while the logistical center of Pokrovsk is in increasing danger. Ukrainian soldiers are also gradually losing positions in Russia’s Kursk region, where they launched a surprise incursion in August.

After more than a thousand days of brutal fighting, the US elections represent a watershed moment for Ukraine. Officials in Kiev and across Europe worry that a Donald Trump victory could force Ukraine into a painful settlement that would allow President Vladimir Putin to consolidate his grip on the country’s territory.

While President Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to keep fighting, the harsh reality is that his exhausted army relies heavily on American aid. Some of Ukraine’s allies have already begun talking about how the war might end.

If Trump, who has said he wants to “settle” the conflict before he takes office, is elected and follows through on his threats to withhold support, Ukraine’s options will narrow dramatically. But even if Kamala Harris wins, the United States will likely have difficulty getting significant financial support through Congress, said Western officials who declined to be named due to discussing sensitive issues.

Article content

Article content

Kyiv has already tasted what a slowdown in support might look like. Infighting in the United States delayed approval of a multibillion-dollar aid package for six months, in a blow to Ukraine, which lacks ammunition and manpower. Moscow is continuing its attacks on the country’s energy and critical infrastructure, which Kiev fears will cause widespread power outages and disrupt heating as the cold season begins.

Besides air dominance, Russia retains significant ammunition advantages over Ukraine. A Western official said its manpower outweighs Kiev’s by a ratio of three to one, and it is likely to recruit about 30,000 new personnel per month. Moscow has also reinforced its forces with thousands of North Korean troops, according to Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence assessments.

American officials are concerned, but less pessimistic than other allies, about the situation on the battlefield. Senior US officials said earlier in October that they expected Ukraine to be able to retain territory in Russia’s Kursk region for at least several months, noting that Kiev was seeing a steady supply of ammunition.

Article content

This may be enough for Ukraine to maintain its streak, but it may not be enough to win.

Zelensky recently put forward the so-called Victory Plan, which he says aims to force the Kremlin to negotiate and avoid freezing the conflict along the current frontline. He said Ukraine was working to secure more military aid and permission to use Western-made weapons to launch strikes inside Russia, but added that much depended on the outcome of the US elections.

“It may not work anymore”

Kiev is looking for enhanced air defenses and support from neighboring countries to shoot down Russian missiles and drones approaching its airspace, as well as the ability to weaken Russian offensive capabilities in the occupied territories.

Ukraine needs more equipment for its brigades; Zelensky said Germany and France aim to provide equipment for at least two people. Kiev is also seeking help in developing its long-range offensive capabilities, for which the United States has already pledged $1.6 billion.

As part of the plan, Ukraine will also seek to continue advancing into the Kursk region with the aim of influencing public opinion in Russia, people familiar with the case said.

Article content

“Russia will retain the initiative, not counting losses, and will use its potential domestic successes on the battlefield to pressure Ukraine inside the country and pressure our partners,” said Mykola Beliskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Security Studies in Kiev.

“The model whereby the West provides ammunition and Ukraine provides manpower may no longer work,” Beliskov said. “While the United States has always said that there will be no American troops on the ground, we are approaching the moment when such a need may arise from our partners because Ukrainian resources are not unlimited,” he added.

-With assistance from Andrea Balaciano and Natalia Drozdiak.

Article content