Atlanta Fed GDP Now est for 4Q growth
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth came in at 2.4%. That is unchanged from the prior report. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning’s existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter will be on Friday, January 26.
The economists estimate for Q4 growth is around 2.0%. So the Atlanta Fed model is a bit higher.
The NY Fed used to release a model estimate, but they stopped as it diverged from reality. The Atlanta Fed model has been more successful in projecting growth.