The AUD/USD pair fell to its lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japanese stocks tumbled. However, after breaking below the 2024 low at 0.63614, the price only managed to reach 0.6348 before retracing and starting to recover. Although this recovery had a choppy start mid-week, the pair eventually settled near its 100-hour moving average, and began its final trajectory towards a set of key technical levels including:
- The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart is currently at 0.6569.
- Midpoint 50% of the move down from the July high at 0.6573
- 200-day moving average at 0.65935
- 100 day move out at 0.66013
In today’s trading, traders attempted to break the 100-day moving average on a number of different hourly bars, but each small break was met with sellers.
Finally, buyers turned into sellers and pushed the price down towards the bottom of the technical levels cluster near 0.6569.
The price remains near those lows currently.
If broken, the 100-day moving average 0.6539 will be the next target. If held, the 100- and 200-day moving averages remain major resistance on the upside.
Sellers and buyers are fighting between moving average support and moving average resistance (and 50% as well).
This reminds me that I did a video tutorial earlier this week on the 100/200 bar moving averages. You might want to watch it today or over the weekend.