Austrian Far-Right’s Kickl Has Foot in the Door to Lead Nation

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(Bloomberg) — More than three months after winning the largest number of seats in a federal election, far-right leader Herbert Kickl is on track to become the first Austrian chancellor for the Freedom Party in a coalition with the conservative People’s Party.

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Kickl, 56, is scheduled to meet President Alexander van der Bellen at 11 a.m. in Vienna on Monday to discuss forming the government. In a dramatic change, the Conservatives said on Sunday they were ready to start talking.

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Kickl’s government will be the first led by a far-right party in Austria after World War II. The People’s Party has for decades sought to keep him at bay by forming coalitions with the Social Democrats and other groups, or by inviting its members to participate as junior partners.

This time the conservatives were forced to surrender, which shocked Austria’s political establishment. The Freedom Party won 57 seats in the September elections in Austria, an increase of 26 seats over 2019, compared to 51 seats for the People’s Party, a loss of 20 seats. His overall share of the vote jumped by about 13 points.

At that point, other parties in Austria tried to join forces to keep the Freedom Party out of government – ​​a “kicking-proof strategy,” according to the party leader. However, Karl Nehammer, chancellor since late 2021, resigned on Saturday after failing to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and the liberal NEOS party. His temporary successor, party secretary Christian Stocker, quickly said he was ready to discuss forming a coalition with the Freedom Party.

The change in stance was an admission of waning popular support for the party, as well as Nehammer’s failure to attract voters after the fall of political prodigy Sebastian Kurz. It also pushed powerful provincial leaders and a faction of industrialists towards an alliance with the far right.

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“Since yesterday, the situation looks different,” Stocker, who until recently was a harsh critic of the Freedom Party, said Sunday. “This country needs a stable government now and we cannot continue to waste time campaigning.”

The chances of a coalition forming between the Freedom Party and the People’s Party have increased significantly, but it is not a foregone conclusion, said Marcus Howe, a geopolitical risk analyst at VE Insight in Vienna.

“Kickel holds most of the cards, so he can be aggressive in his negotiating position,” Howe said. “If negotiations fail, he could simply back down and run in an election that opinion polls suggest will deliver even more landslide gains” for the Freedom Party.

Kickel is a divisive figure in the country of about 9 million people, and is considered in opinion polls as one of the least popular politicians while simultaneously leading his party to the cusp of victory. In the past, he has publicly referred to Van der Bellen, 80, as an “old mummy.” When he served as Interior Minister, some foreign intelligence agencies stopped sharing information due to their level of mistrust.

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The Freedom Party campaigned on a pro-Russian, anti-immigrant, and climate-skeptic platform. Kickel has also strongly opposed vaccine mandates during the pandemic, and has supported far-right activists promoting mass deportations of immigrants.

In Europe, it would bring another populist leader to power as Donald Trump prepares to take over the US presidency, Germany prepares for an election in February that includes a rising right-wing, and France faces political gridlock. Kickl also pledged to cooperate with Viktor Orban, the often controversial prime minister and neighbor of Hungary.

For Kickl to become chancellor, he will need to reconcile his political views with the conservatives, who still hold powerful positions in the Austrian economy and society.

Austria’s new leaders must also face serious headwinds for the country’s industrial producers after years of high wage growth and rising energy prices have hurt competitiveness. After two years of economic contraction, Austria will also need to approve billions of euros in budget adjustment measures to avoid EU sanctions.

Kickel said in a statement on Sunday that his policy will focus on easy living, recognition of personal achievements, justice, security and peace, as well as protecting the homeland and freedom and providing a good perspective for future generations.

“We take no responsibility for the time wasted, chaotic conditions and massive erosion of trust,” Kickl said Sunday on Facebook. “It is clear that the Freedom Party was and remains the only stable point in Austrian politics.”

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