Barclays says there are “cautious warning signals” the US labor market is cooling

FOMC rate increases seem to be filtering through the jobs markets. Barclays says they have evaluated:

  • Surrogate data from US employee profiles sends cautious warning signs that the US labor market is not as strong as it was last year.
  • The total number of employees from our surrogate data appears to have peaked on January 23rd, and has been slowly declining since then
  • In fact, net inflows for various job categories became negative for a few and grew less strongly in others.

Barclays says there is “reluctance” by companies to hire or fire workers, and furthermore that workers are unwilling to leave their current jobs.

The cooling of job markets has implications for the Fed going forward, blessing the push for “higher for longer.”

BarclaysCautiouscoolinglabormarketSignalsWarning
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