Research firm Strategas released data showing that its inflation index grew at a rate of 3.8% year-on-year. The CPI for the Common Man measure focuses on items that people have to buy regularly – food, energy, shelter, clothing, utilities and insurance.
This marks the ninth straight month that the regular CPI has exceeded the headline inflation figure. Throughout President Biden's term, the index has exceeded the headline inflation figure in 34 out of 40 months.
Strategas notes that this ongoing trend could pose a challenge for President Biden as election issues come to the fore.
“President Biden may be running out of time to change voters’ perceptions,” the company said.
In a related note, BCA Research acknowledged the cumulative difficulties facing the Biden administration.
They indicated that they may consider changing their election forecasts over the summer if current trends continue.
BCA Research's quantitative models still show a slight favorability of Democrats in the White House and Republicans in the Senate, consistent with their qualitative analysis.
They also noted that although the economy is not showing signs of an imminent recession, vulnerabilities are beginning to emerge due to continued high interest rates.
Moreover, foreign policy setbacks represent another potential risk for President Biden.
The company expects the hotly contested US elections to increase political risk and uncertainty, which could negatively impact investor sentiment mid-year.