The bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets had a strong weekly close. Bitcoin price moved straight up to the current major resistance at $28,600. After seven failed attempts, this price is once again below the current key level that separates BTC from $30,000.
The strong price action will also benefit the broader cryptocurrency market since altcoin rotation aka altcoin season is yet to come. So Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors should keep an eye on the major macro data in the coming week.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are facing these major events
After a quiet start to the week, one of the most important macro gauges of financial markets will come out on Wednesday, April 12th, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). When the CPI data is released at 8:30 AM EST, expect to see more volatility in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.
Investors will be assessing whether the Fed can push through with another rate hike or whether to hit the pause button in the face of a stronger-than-expected inflation decline combined with the latest US labor market data. The CPI for the previous month was 6.0% on a yearly basis and 0.4% on a monthly basis.
In March, expectations were for CPI on a yearly basis at 5.2% and 0.3% (MoM). The lack of expectations is likely to push the bitcoin price lower as the possibility of a Fed rate hike in May rises.
CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 61% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in May. If expectations are met or exceeded, Bitcoin is likely to head north.
Later that day, on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 PM EST. The meeting minutes will reveal more details about the Fed’s expectations and considerations for the latest interest rate decision. This makes Wednesday the most important day of the week.
On Thursday, April 13th, both the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30 AM EST. PPI for the previous month is expected at 0.0% (previously -0.1%), while the core PPI is expected to increase on a monthly basis: 0.3% (previously 0.0%).
Initial jobless claims are expected at 216,000, previously 228,000. Last week, ISM private sector PMI and US labor market figures showed small cracks in the US economy, while (the lagging indicator) the US unemployment rate sent a mixed signal and fell marginally (from 3.6% to 3.5%).
On Friday, April 14th at 8:30 a.m., the US Retail Sales will be announced. March Retail Sales are expected to decline 0.5% MoM (previously -0.4%), while Core Retail Sales are expected to decline 0.4% MoM (previously -0.1%). The data should be seen in the context of slowing economic growth momentum and recession fears.
At the time of publication, BTC price is trading at $28,258. Bitcoin’s daily or weekly close above $28,600 would be very bullish.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com