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Bitcoin had a volatile week, with its price fluctuating between a local high of $69,500 and a low of $65,000. After weeks of strong bullish momentum, the market has now cooled, and Bitcoin is consolidating below the crucial $70,000 level. This key threshold is seen as a catalyst for intense buying pressure if Bitcoin manages to break through it.
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According to CryptoQuant data, there is still room for further growth, with short-term (STH) coins trading at a premium of 6.2% to net asset value (NAV). This premium is often viewed as a measure of market sentiment, reflecting the optimism of short-term coin holders who are willing to pay above the current market value to acquire Bitcoin. A higher NAV premium generally indicates that investors expect prices to continue rising and are positioning themselves for future gains.
With BTC holding steady in its current range, all eyes are on $70,000 as a potential breakout level that could pave the way for a new rally. With positive market sentiment and supportive data, Bitcoin’s outlook for the coming weeks remains encouraging, supported by technical signals and strong buyer interest.
Buying Bitcoin at Retail (Again)
Bitcoin is seeing increasing demand from its holders in the short term as its price consolidates below key supply levels, near all-time highs. Analyst Axler Adler recently Shared critical insights about XWhich shows that Bitcoin’s net asset value (NAV) premium among short-term holders has risen to 6.2%.
The NAV premium of 6.2% indicates that Bitcoin’s current market price is trading 6.2% above the average acquisition cost for short-term holders. Essentially, these investors are valuing Bitcoin at a premium, indicating optimism about the potential for further gains.
Adler explains that this measure acts as a bullish signal, highlighting room for continued price growth. An NAV premium of 25% or higher usually indicates an overheated market, implying that demand has not yet reached excessive levels.
According to Adler’s analysis, the NAV premium is an important measure of market sentiment. A moderate premium such as 6.2% reflects healthy demand among short-term bondholders, consistent with an accumulation phase rather than a peak. This is especially important as Bitcoin price is consolidating under significant resistance levels, which could pave the way for a breakout.
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Bitcoin’s consolidation below key supply levels and rising demand among holders in the short term reflects a favorable environment for a potential price rise. If short-term holder demand continues to grow, this could send the price of Bitcoin to new highs.
A balance between outstanding demand and manageable NAV levels can indicate sustained upward momentum. There is a potential rally on the horizon if buying pressure strengthens at current levels.
Technical level of viewing
Bitcoin is trading at $66,900 after establishing strong support around $65,000. Price action indicates resilience as it consolidates above this crucial level. This support around $65,000 represents an important pivot point, as stability above it reflects fundamental strength and fuels optimism among investors. However, for Bitcoin to maintain the upward momentum, a break above $70,000 is necessary to confirm the uptrend.
If Bitcoin loses the $65,000 level, analysts expect a rebound towards the 200-day moving average (MA) at $63,274. This level is suitable as a long-term support area. A pullback to this area could attract new buyers, cementing it as key support if it is tested.
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Investors are looking at the 200-day moving average as a major anchor for Bitcoin’s bullish structure. If BTC can hold above $65,000 and eventually break $70,000, this indicates a continuation of the current bullish phase. Conversely, a drop below these support levels would shift focus to the 200-day moving average. Staying above this moving average is essential to prevent a bearish reversal.
Featured image by Dall-E, chart from TradingView