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As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to rise to new highs, setting a bullish outlook for the rest of the cycle. Bitfinex’s latest reports indicate when BTC’s peak could come and how much upside could be left for major cryptocurrencies.
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The “unique” Bitcoin course
In a recent alpha report, Bitfinex Highlight The cryptocurrency industry has made great strides in mainstream adoption and recognition this year, which set this cycle apart from previous ones.
Notably, the launch and increased institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has exceeded expectations and attracted a “new class of investors” to the cryptocurrency space.
According to the report, this cycle was “unique” as these new investors brought in by ETFs and increased confidence in the sector sent the BTC price to a new ATH before the halving event, which has historically led the major cryptocurrency to a new high after 5 -7 months.
The industry has also seen a growing interest in diversifying national cryptocurrency reserves, with several jurisdictions around the world considering implementing a strategic Bitcoin reserve following the recent performance of leading cryptocurrencies.
According to Bitfinex analysts, these factors have kept BTC’s corrections smaller than other cycles and are likely to continue this trend for the rest of the uptrend:
In the current bull cycle, which began in mid-to-late 2023, Bitcoin corrections have been smaller, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional demand and ETFs providing consistent buying pressure, we expect this trend to continue, sustaining the future . Corrections are limited and perhaps shorter in duration.
Furthermore, the incoming cryptocurrency-friendly US administration has added to the increasingly bullish sentiment surrounding the industry, leading to a massive post-election rally. As a result, the cryptocurrency market has grown by 130% year-to-date to reach a market cap of $3.69 trillion, up nearly 70% this quarter.
What’s next for Bitcoin in this cycle?
The report noted Bitcoin’s performance, highlighting its 573% rise from its 2022 low of $15,487. Leading cryptocurrencies also saw a 130% year-to-date (YTD) increase, supported by the industry’s achievements this year.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark for the first time, bringing a new ATH closer to the $110,000 level on Monday. According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency still has several levels to rise in 2025, as historical data suggests that the market is in the middle of the cycle.
This data indicates that the BTC price is likely to peak in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, as it tends to reach its peak approximately 450 days after the halving. Meanwhile, metrics such as market value to realized value (MVRV), net unrealized gains and losses (NUPL), and the bull to bear market index indicate that “we are still in the bull phase but far from euphoric peaks.”
Bitfinex also explained that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has been historically effective at timing cycle highs, predicting peaks within a three-day window. Previous cycle forecasts suggest that Bitcoin may peak between mid-2025 and early 2026.
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If it follows the pattern of the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin could see its price increase by 40% to $339,000 and reach a peak around June or July 2025. However, the report notes that the major cryptocurrency has been on a trend of diminishing returns over the cycles.
Accordingly, Bitcoin price may see a 15% to 20% increase to the $160,000-$200,000 range instead. However, if the cryptocurrency reverses the 2017 cycle pattern, Bitcoin’s rally could extend into January of 2026, peaking at $229,000 with similar diminishing returns.
As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below ATH.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com