Bitcoin has shown a tendency to experience steady price increases in the months following the halving.
The countdown to the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving in 2024 has begun, with just 100 days remaining until the event takes place. While the crypto market eagerly anticipates the approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), Bitcoin miners will experience a 50% reduction in block rewards, marking the next block subsidy halving.
The Bitcoin halving is scheduled to occur in the second quarter of 2024, tentatively around April 19. Various countdown tools, such as the Bitcoin Halving Clock and Bitcoin Halving Countdown, indicate that the event is just around the corner, with 99 to 101 days remaining and roughly about 15,000 blocks left.
Bitcoin Halving Impact on BTC Price
Historical data reveals a correlation between Bitcoin halving events and subsequent price increases. Following the previous three halving events, BTC experienced substantial price surges, leading to new all-time highs.
Timo Oinonen, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said in a post on X that “between the most recent halving event of 2020 and the following year’s all-time high, Bitcoin experienced an impressive 654 percent ascent (purple).”
Examining past halving events, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to experience steady price increases in the months following the halving. The current cycle suggests a potential bullish run in 2025, coinciding with potential institutional investments through the Bitcoin ETF space. Standard Chartered’s prediction of a $120,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2024 may not be too far-fetched given these historical patterns.
However, the impending Bitcoin halving raises concerns about miner profitability, as they will earn only 3.125 BTC per block, down from the current 6.25 BTC. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals a decrease in Bitcoin held in miner wallets, currently totaling 1.819 million BTC compared to 1.827 million BTC at the start of December.
Notably, technology firm MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR), known for having the largest corporate BTC treasury, tends to increase its Bitcoin purchases leading up to halving events. This strategic move reflects a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s future, aligning with historical patterns observed after previous halving events.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
The spotlight is also on the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Despite years of reluctance, the SEC’s approach might be changing, though as of today, no firm confirmation on the ETFs’ trading approval has been received. While the US has been cautious about spot Bitcoin ETFs, these investment products already exist in Europe and other regions.
Traders are cautiously optimistic about the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF on price action. Some anticipate a “sell the news” phenomenon with initial losses followed by a gradual recovery.
However, industry experts, including Nate Geraci and Michaël van de Poppe, see the approval as a game-changer. Van de Poppe predicts a substantial influx of liquidity, comparing it to the dot-com bubble or Gold’s bull cycle from 2004 to 2011.
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