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Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger posits that Bitcoin is “highly likely” in a supercycle. Krueger has made his point clear point of view via X, focusing on the distinct path Bitcoin is currently taking compared to previous market cycles.
A Bitcoin supercycle is a theoretical phase where the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise unusually, exceeding traditional boom-and-bust cycles. This concept implies a long period of growth supported by increasing mainstream adoption, leading to a much stronger and more permanent upward trajectory than the typical four-year halving cycle that Bitcoin has historically followed.
Is Bitcoin in a super cycle?
Regarding the pro-Bitcoin shift of President-elect Donald Trump and his plan to create a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, Krueger said: “Do yourself a favor and stop comparing this cycle to previous ones. It is very likely that Bitcoin is in a supercycle.” The analyst stated that the cryptocurrency industry has just witnessed the change The most dramatic in history, a fundamentally driven 180-degree turnaround.
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Krueger also noted the rapid development of the bitcoin and cryptocurrency sector, noting that it has gone “from a barely legal pariah, abhorred by the state, to one of the nation’s best-adopted industries” in a matter of weeks — a change he described as “very good.” It’s hard to find comparisons in modern times.
In comparison to historical financial transformations, Krueger highlighted the transformative impact that the 1970s had on gold. Gold in the 1970s is perhaps one such example. The 1970s were a transformative decade for gold. He explained that Nixon’s ending of the gold standard in 1971, and the dismantling of Bretton Woods, led to gold rising from $35 an ounce to $850 in 1981.
Krueger also addressed the timing of Bitcoin’s potential peak, noting that expecting a major local peak around March is reasonable based on his previous analysis. “This will depend largely on the upside slope, funding rates, and the broader economy. But one should not equate a large local top with the start of a bear market.
Although he acknowledged the possibility of a bear market, he emphasized that “the conditions for this are not yet in place. It is also too early to expect a top. Bitcoin’s upward trend always lasts for several months. It has only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken.
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Highlighting the unstable nature of market sentiment, Krueger added a note of caution: “The minute you all believe what I just wrote, that’s when the top will be.” With this statement Krueger emphasizes the psychological factors that often influence market dynamics, especially the collective belief in market peaks.
X user Paradox Parrot (@Paradoxparrot) commented on Kruger’s assertion, saying: “I agree. But ‘this time is different’ is a good way to go back and forth.” In response, Krueger acknowledged the periodic skepticism surrounding altcoins, asserting: “Absolutely. Alts will do a round trip for most of it. It’s the nature of the beast. The difference of mind this time around has already been proven many times over on many levels. I predicted it and covered it here in detail Since the middle of 2023. By the way, there are trips back and forth for two reasons a) lack of fundamentally driven demand and more importantly b) illiquidity (which is also why it has risen in such a vertical way).”
Despite Krueger’s optimistic outlook, not all experts agree with the supercycle hypothesis. Chris Perensky, Partner at Placeholder VC, I offered A contrarian view on Never sell it back and forth Ask anyone who never sold in 2021.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $98,287.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com