Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised to achieve a new all-time high (ATH), charged with positive seasonality in Q4 2024.
New Bitcoin ATH on the horizon?
On October 28, Bitcoin rose above $71,000, sparking optimism for a new ATH higher than the peak of $73,737 recorded in March of this year. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold several times since then, it has yet to set a new ATH.
According to a hadith a report From cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is often viewed as a “Trump trade,” showing a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s election prospects.
For example, after a 6% drop last week, Bitcoin recovered all of its losses, coinciding with a rise in the odds of Trump being elected on PolyMarket, a decentralized forecasting market platform.
At the time of writing, Trump Lead With a 66.1% chance of winning, compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. However, polls show a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.
A potential Trump win is moving the options market. According to the report, while short-term volatility may increase as election results approach, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:
Options that expire on key dates around the election command higher premiums, with implied volatility It is expected to reach a peak At 100 daily trading volume on November 8, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turmoil. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual although we remain confident of higher prices in the long term.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin fell to a low of $52,756 in September. However, the leading digital asset rose nearly 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in “higher” a novel.
Seasonality on Bitcoin’s side
The report emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from “favorable Q4 seasonality.” Historically, Q4 has been profitable for BTC during the first half of the year, giving an average quarterly return of 31.34%.
The buildup in call options expiring on December 27 — especially at the $80,000 strike price — also reinforces BTC’s bullish outlook for Q4 2024. The report adds:
As open interest options Climb to new highsthe market is showing signs of preparing for a post-election rally, which could push Bitcoin toward — and beyond — its all-time high of $73,666.
In similar news earlier this month, cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research announced Notice The recent positive developments in the FTX failure are driving Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 narrative.
BTC is trading at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% over the past 24 hours and about 3.5% off its current ATH. Whether BTC will do that He continues It remains to be seen whether it trends upward through the rest of the quarter or faces another rejection.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com