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As the US presidential election approaches, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with speculation about how the outcome will affect the price of Bitcoin.
With only 15 days left until the election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Options traders Increasingly optimistic about reaching a new all-time high for Bitcoin, regardless of who wins the presidency.
Traders prefer call options before the US elections
According to another a report From Bloomberg, Options traders are placing big bets that Bitcoin will reach a record high of $80,000 by the end of November.
It is worth noting that the implied volatility of Bitcoin options, especially those that expire around Election Day, remains high. More traders are preferring call options, which give the buyer the right to buy Bitcoin at new highs.
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“I think the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to do well regardless of the election outcome,” commented David Lawant, head of research at major cryptocurrency brokerage FalconX. His analysis indicates this Options activity The surroundings of the upcoming elections show a clear bias towards the potential upside.
The political landscape is characterized by contrasting views regarding the emerging cryptocurrency scene. Trump, who has been a vocal advocate for digital assets over the past months, is viewed by many as a pro-crypto candidate, leading to Bitcoin being described as a “Trump trade.”
On the other hand, Harris pledged to support a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, a shift from the stricter oversight seen during the Biden administration, which was characterized by ongoing enforcement actions and lawsuits against major players in the sector.
According to the report, in addition to political factors, traders also consider non-political influences such as potential Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) and ongoing concerns about inflation, which contribute to generally upbeat sentiment.
Data reveals strong demand for $80,000 Bitcoin calls
Data from Deribit, a cryptocurrency options exchange, reveals a decline in buying, suggesting that more traders are buying… Contact options Which puts him as the year comes to a close.
Yves Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, explained the current trading patterns investors are looking at, saying: “We are seeing traders buying calls near $68,000 and putting near $66,000, which suggests many are preparing for a breakout in either direction.”
Feldman also added that there is limited reason to expect a downward collapse after the election, making the upward move seem more plausible for the market-leading cryptocurrency.
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Open interest data It also shows that call contracts scheduled to expire on November 29 are largely concentrated around the $80,000 mark, with the most popular second strike price at $70,000.
For contracts expiring on December 27, interest is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike price for calls expiring on November 8 is $75,000.
Interestingly, call options command higher premiums than their counterparts, according to the skewed term structure, which reflects the pricing dynamics between these options.
“This suggests that investors are leveraging the options market as a tool to capture potential upside and not as a hedge against downside risk,” Lawant explained.
The researcher also pointed out those views on currencies other than Bitcoin Cryptocurrencies They remain divided, with less consensus on how these assets would perform under different electoral scenarios.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,370.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com