Bitcoin (BTC) has had a difficult start to a historically bullish October, weighed down by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, the bulls remain optimistic of a turnaround later in the month.
Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ is off to a patchy start
The leading digital asset by reported market cap had a turbulent start to its most bullish month since 2013. The chart below shows how October has historically been the most bullish month for Bitcoin, giving an average return of 21.2%.
Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly fell below the critical $60,000 level before rebounding to $61,179 at press time. During this seesaw price action, BTC saw liquidations worth over $32 million, while ETH liquidations amounted to just above $18 million.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen by 6.9%, while major altcoins have suffered even greater losses. Ethereum (ETH) is down 11.2%, Solana (SOL) is down 10.9%, and Binance Coin (BNB) is down 9.9%.
According to CoinGlass data, most of the Bitcoin price rise typically occurs in the latter part of October. The chart below shows that the first days of October have historically been less favorable for Bitcoin prices.
Notably, October 1 has been positive for Bitcoin only once since 2013, while October 2 has shown gains five times out of 11. In contrast, later dates, such as October 28, have shown positive returns nine times out of eleven, followed by 20 October, which saw eight positive days out of eleven.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s most bearish month, September, closed with a 7.29% gain this year, marking its best performance since 2013.
Multiple factors affect Bitcoin price movement
Bitcoin underwent a fourth halving in April 2024, followed by interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September, two events typically considered bullish for Bitcoin’s price outlook.
However, these positive developments have been overshadowed by increasing geopolitical escalations and uncertainty surrounding the results of the hotly contested US presidential election in November 2024.
However, some cryptocurrency analysts are confident that Bitcoin will bounce back later in the year. For example, an analyst from Standard Chartered Bank See Bitcoin price falling below $60,000 is a massive buying opportunity.
Likewise, Markus Thelen of 10x Research expected “Exceptionally high” chances of cryptocurrencies rising in the last quarter of 2024. Some factors for this prediction are decrease Bitcoin Dominance and Ethereum Gas Fees Rising.
In contrast, the co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes He believes Interest rate cuts may lead to a market collapse in the short term. Bitcoin is trading at $61,179 at press time, up 2.2% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Coinglass.com and TradingView.com