Basic Overview
Bitcoin surged in value over the weekend after a failed assassination attempt on former US President Trump. The market responded positively to the event because it was a supporter of the cryptocurrency industry and the odds of Trump winning the election increased.
Furthermore, we received news that the German government finally dumped all of its Bitcoin on July 12, so this bearish momentum is now in the rearview mirror. Also, the old crypto exchange Mt. Gox has been paying back its old customers since last week, so even this news should be taken into account now.
So we have a lot of bullish factors and very little bearish factors left. On a macro level, data last week showed that the deflationary trend in the US remains intact and the labor market remains resilient. So, all else being equal, we are looking at lower interest rates and resilient growth, which should ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Time Frame
Bitcoin daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin finally managed to climb back above the key 60k area, leaving a bluff behind. This is generally a reversal signal, so buyers may now have more confidence to start targeting a new cycle high.
On the other hand, sellers will want to see the price break back below the 60k area and the major trend line to regain control and increase bearish bets to new lows.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 Hours Time Frame
Bitcoin 4 hours
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that we had some breakouts over the weekend as the price broke the downtrend line and the 60k area before extending the rally to the 63k level as bullish momentum increased.
From a risk management perspective, buyers will have a much better chance of taking a risk versus reward at the 60k support level where they will also find the uptrend line to meet. On the other hand, sellers may step in around the 63-64k area to pave the way for another drop to the 60k support level and look for a breakout to the downside to increase bearish bets to new lows.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1-hour chart, we can see that we have another minor trend line that defines the current bullish momentum. This could be another support for buyers as it comes to getting in now that the market has turned bullish. If the price breaks below the 58k level, the bullish bias will be invalidated. The red lines define the average daily range for the day.
Upcoming incentives
Today, Fed Chairman Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., tomorrow we hear the U.S. retail sales report, on Wednesday Fed Chairman Waller speaks, and on Thursday we conclude with the latest U.S. jobless claims numbers.