US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Beijing on Sunday on a highly anticipated mission to revitalize US-China relations, which were sparked in February after an alleged Chinese spy balloon flew over North America.
Blinken will be the first secretary of state to visit China since 2018, reflecting the strict lockdown imposed by China during the pandemic, as well as how relations between the United States and China have sunk to their lowest point in decades.
His trip was designed to follow President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping’s meeting in Bali in November when they agreed on the need to create a “floor” within the relationship. But the plan was derailed in February when Blinken canceled a visit to China because of the balloon.
Relationships have been on a downward trajectory in recent years. The United States worries about everything from Chinese military activity around Taiwan, to its refusal to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Beijing accuses the United States of trying to contain China with advanced technology export controls and security measures it has taken with allies.
The relationship hit rock bottom when a Chinese balloon appeared over North America in late January and traveled across the continent, including sensitive military sites, before being shot down by the United States.
Over the past month, there have been signs of improvement. The Financial Times reported that CIA Director Bill Burns secretly visited China in May, and in the same month, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, in Vienna. Biden later said at the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, that he expected an imminent “thaw” in relations.
Relationships are now “in a place where we can advance Bali’s agenda,” said one senior US official.
“That’s what this trip is about,” the official said, and warned that Blinken was “very clear” that progress would be “difficult” to achieve.
This journey is a reconnection, not a breakthrough. “He needs to stop the free deterioration of relations and find a basis for stability,” said Evan Medeiros, an expert at Georgetown University in China. “Both countries need and want the meeting not to be bad, but it is too early to talk about success.”
Daniel Kreitenbrink, the State Department’s top official for East Asia, said Blinken had three goals, including the need for communication channels to ensure “competition does not veer into conflict.” He said Blinken would also raise issues of concern while looking for possible areas of collaboration.
Dennis Wilder, the CIA’s former top China expert, said the visit would end a period of “deep acrimony” but would do little to address “fundamental mistrust”.
“The Chinese remain upset by Secretary Blinken’s postponement of his visit earlier this year and his public warnings to Beijing at the Munich Security Conference[in February]about potentially lethal Chinese aid to Russia.”
Blinken will hold two days of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and other officials. It is unclear if he will meet Xi, who was due to see him in February.
Any decision by Xi not to meet Blinken, Wilder said, would be a “strong signal” that China is concerned the United States will take more steps to curb advanced technology development and other “de-risking” efforts.
One Chinese scholar said that Blinken’s trip would only be successful if he met Xi. He said it would be a “contempt” if he only met Chen or Wang because they are not as powerful in China as the Secretary of State is in the United States.
While US officials say it has been time since the balloon incident for high-level meetings to resume, it still hangs on the relationship.
The Financial Times reported earlier that China was reluctant to grant Blinken a visit due to concerns that the FBI might release findings of the balloon investigation. In a letter cited by the Financial Times story, 19 Republican senators this week urged Biden not to give in to Chinese efforts to “force the United States into silence” and to release the FBI’s findings “immediately.”
Raja Krishnamurthy, the top Democrat on the China House Committee, said he had reviewed some of the balloon-related material provided by the FBI and that the information was “eye-opening”.
“For them (China) to call it a weather balloon . . . is not a great look for them.”
Asked on Saturday if the flight could help ease tensions, Biden said Xi did not know what the balloon, which China claims was a weather observation vessel, was doing. “It was more embarrassing than it was intended,” he said, adding that he hopes to meet Xi “over the next several months.”
Mike Gallagher, the Republican chairman of the China House Committee, told the Financial Times that the president’s comments were “naive and misleading”.
“We cannot mistake the CCP’s recent violations of our sovereignty and increased aggression for a mere coincidence.”
Some analysts said China may want a “tactical pause” in the tensions to enable it to tackle its ailing economy, which is struggling to recover from earlier strict Covid restrictions. US export controls and Chinese moves to tighten anti-espionage laws and crack down on foreign consulting have also hurt investor sentiment in China.
But in a warning to those hoping for a quick snowballing improvement, China’s foreign ministry on Friday dealt a heavy blow to the United States, warning Washington not to constantly seek “communication” with “harming China’s interests.”
Back in Washington, the Biden administration is also facing criticism from Republicans, including Gallagher, who has called efforts to engage with Beijing “zombie engagement.” This week, he told CNBC that the effort to offer China olive branches to induce participation was an “invitation to aggression.”
But Krishnamurthy, his Democratic counterpart, said high-level meetings could help stabilize relations and there was a need to communicate clearly to China how its aggressive behavior could “lead to escalation”.
“Mike might love zombie movies…but it’s really important that we have those conversations, do our best to be clear and listen carefully at the same time and then try to find ways to discourage aggression.”
He follows Demetrius of Sevastopol on Twitter