On Friday, Bank of America (BofA) revised its forecast for the currency pair, now expecting it to reach 1.12 by the end of the year, down from the previously anticipated 1.15.
The adjustment follows a change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, with the first cut now expected in December rather than June. BofA cited potential risks from the absence of Fed cuts and fluctuating oil prices.
The firm also highlighted the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and persistently high U.S. interest rates on emerging markets (EM). These factors have been identified as significant challenges, prompting BofA to revise its forecasts for the exchange rate as well.
The bank now predicts the USD/JPY will climb to 155 by the end of 2024 and 147 by the end of 2025, which is an upward revision based on the latest Federal Reserve forecast adjustments.
BofA has also shifted its stance on the USD/JPY from a slightly short position to buying, indicating a change in their trading strategy. The firm noted that most of their positions are light, suggesting a cautious approach to currency trading at the moment.
In the broader context of currency market dynamics, BofA stated that a stronger U.S. dollar would likely depend more on real money movements rather than speculative trades. This perspective takes into account the actual flow of funds by institutional investors as opposed to short-term bets made by traders.
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