Written by Eduardo Simões and Anthony Bodell
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazilians cast ballots on Sunday for mayors and city council members in more than 5,500 municipal elections, with opinion polls showing conservative candidates with a strong lead in many major cities, setting up the country’s political landscape ahead of the presidential race in 2017. 2026.
All eyes are on the mayoral elections of Sao Paulo, Brazil’s largest city, where three candidates are competing closely after a fierce election campaign, setting the stage for a second runoff on October 27.
A poll on Saturday showed center-right incumbent Mayor Ricardo Nunes, who led the race until last week, tied for second place on 26% of the vote with far-right digital influencer Pablo Marsal, an unprecedented split in the conservative vote. .
Opinion polls conducted by Datafolha showed that left-wing congressman Guilherme Boles, who is supported by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his Workers’ Party, was ahead on the eve of the election and leading the way with 29%.
Marsal, an anti-establishment neophyte politician who has surged in the polls with his blistering attacks on opponents, ran a social media campaign with little funding and no TV time. He has made headlines for weeks since an angry fifth-place candidate hit him with a chair during a televised debate.
Opinion polls showed that candidates linked to Lula are facing problems with the decline in the president’s popularity in his third non-consecutive term.
“As long as democracy exists, the people’s right to choose will remain, for better or for worse,” Lula said after casting his vote on Sunday. “What we cannot allow to happen is people voting without knowing.”
He has largely avoided campaigning for mayoral candidates, even though their success will boost his chances in 2026, when he is expected to run for re-election.
On the right, candidates associated with right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro fared better, despite him being banned from running for elected office until 2030 due to his baseless attacks on Brazil’s voting system.
“The right’s anti-establishment views have become mainstream,” said political risk expert Kremar de Souza.
Andre Cesar, an analyst at Hold Legislative Advisors, noted that Lula’s Workers’ Party is at risk of not winning a single state capital.
Both analysts said Lula likely kept his campaigning to a minimum to avoid being associated with the candidates losing.
Bolsonaro also distanced himself from the São Paulo campaign, complicating his alliances. He formally endorsed Nunes’ re-election, but avoided recording a campaign video.
He appeared to distance himself from Nunes as the anti-establishment Marsal rose in the polls from a dark horse to the brink of a runoff. Bolsonaro said on Sunday that he would support anyone who faces Polis in a potential runoff.
Voting began at eight in the morning (1100 GMT) and ends at five in the evening (2000 GMT). To win outright in the first round, mayoral candidates in cities with 200,000 voters or more need to obtain more than 50% of the valid votes.