GBP/USD daily chart
Sterling took a boost from the British labor market report earlier here, with the pound now up from 1.2870 to 1.2905 on the day. Dollar weakness is also part of the reason, but the recent push in the last 15-20 minutes is definitely more GBP-driven.
Wage numbers continue to rise, at least nominally, and this is fueling more calls for the Bank of England to keep rates high and tighten further.
In terms of pricing, the markets are looking for a final rate of over 6% with the peak at just under 6.50% right now. However, with things picking up pace in the UK, traders are now chasing the greater possibility of a 50bp move coming in August. There’s about 42 basis points already priced in for the month ahead, and that speaks to how traders are looking at just how optimistic the BoE is.
The central bank themselves have made it clear that their main focus is inflation and that they are probably willing to risk a hard landing just for that. Markets certainly take this pledge very seriously.
Returning to the GBP/USD pair, the pair looks ready to take off at the next 1.3000 mark with little distance between the current levels and the key number mark.