Calm Before the Storm or New Stable Era?

Bitcoin fell to a monthly low of $65,000 on June 14, and is currently down about 5% since the same time last week. However, zooming out to view the bigger picture shows that the asset is still consolidating where it has been since early March.

“Bitcoin is rarely this calm,” analyst James Cheek commented in a post on X on June 14. He added before stating: “The 30-day price range is separated by only 8.3%:

“There are two outcomes: 1) Bitcoin remains a new paradigm stablecoin. 2) Volatility is on the horizon.”

#Bitcoin Very rarely is this calm.

The 30-day price range is separated by only 8.3%.

There are two results:
1) Bitcoin remains a new paradigm stablecoin
2) Volatility on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/aNl3WlkZky

– _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 14, 2024

Bitcoin is still sideways

Furthermore, Bitcoin's sell-side risk ratio, a measure used to navigate volatility, is currently low, indicating that most of the profits and losses have already been made. This means the market needs to act in order to stimulate the next round of spending, the analyst said.

Additionally, the Volatility Index, which acts as a fuel gauge for Bitcoin, indicates that the market is ready for a trend on a weekly time frame but still needs a rest on a monthly basis.

“My assessment is that the market is ready to move in the short term (volatility), but not necessarily in the long term (trend continuation).”

The analyst concluded that Bitcoin's base case remains “scrapping” characterized by mini-pumps and dumps that shake up impatient holders.

“The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to breakout is good for the overall cycle.” Comment Fellow analyst Rekt Capital also noted the long period of range trading.

He added that this continued strengthening enables the price to re-synchronize with historical half cycles “so that we can have a normal and usual rise.”

“History suggests this consolidation may continue for another three months.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoiner Samson Mow said that “the BTC file is now very compressed.” Forecasting That huge candle is coming.

Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, compared the period of consolidation to a similar phase in the market last year.

It would be funny if BTC did the same summer consolidation fractal again pic.twitter.com/SSbIwWB3UA

-Will (@WClementeIII) June 14, 2024

Where's next?

On June 14, market analyst Jacob Canfield said It has been identified Two possible scenarios. Bitcoin could fall to around $66,000 – where it is currently trading – before a “strong reaction bounce” back towards $70,000.

He added that there could be a “deep capitulation wick” at $60,000 to $62,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,200, after a 1.2% decline on the day.

It is now down 10% from its all-time high in mid-March, but is still limited to a lower range of just under $60,000, where it dropped in early May.