Canada July retail sales 0.3% versus 0.4% expected

• Prior month +0.1% (was expecting 0.0%)
• The July advanced estimate last month was for a 0.4% gain
• Retail sales for July 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. Sales advanced in 7 of the 9 subsectors led by an increase in food and beverages of 1.3%
• Ex Auto 1.0% vs 0.5% expected.
• Prior month ex auto was -0.8% revised to -0.7%
• August advanced estimate -0.3%
• e-commerce sales were up 2.4% accounting for 6% of the total retail trade (compared with 5.9% in June)
• July YoY sales 2.0% vs -0.6% prior
• Sales ex Autos YoY 0.4% vs -3.3% last month

A look at the subsectors shows that 7 of the 9 were higher. Motor vehicles and part dealers were the biggest decline with a -1.6%. This was the 1st client for months. Lower sales of new car dealers -1.7% led to a decrease, followed by a used car dealers -3.1%.

Lower sales a gasoline stations and fuel vendors (-0.7% also weighed on retail sales in July. In volume terms sales decreased -1.0% for the month.

A rebound for the month but less of the expectations. The preview estimate for next month is expected to fall again taking some of the wind away from the positive number this month.

The USDCAD has moved higher (lower USDCAD) off of lows for the day in the pair at 1.34226. The current price is trading at 1.3445. The price has moved away from its 100-hour moving average and 200-day moving average today at 1.34652 and 1.34604 respectively. It would take a move back above those moving averages to tilt the bias back to the upside.

Yesterday the high price extended briefly above its 200-hour moving average (green line in the chart below) for the 1st time since September 11, but failed and moved lower, finding support against its 200-day moving average at 1.34604.

Today that key 200-day moving average was broken in the European session.