Official China PMI for August 2024 from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
More to come
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The Chinese economy has shown, and continues to show, an uneven and unbalanced recovery. Key areas of concern include:
- Uncertain outlook for debt-ridden real estate sector
- Consumer confidence and demand decline
- Excess manufacturing capacity in some sectors
- Still below the target core inflation rate (this is affected by the above points about weak domestic demand and excess capacity).
- On the horizon is the possibility of higher tariffs on Chinese exports.
The authorities have made targeted efforts to support the economy, but in a gradual manner. But there is still much work to be done.
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There are two main PMI surveys in China – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by media company Caixin and research firm Markit/S&P Global.
- The official PMI survey covers large, state-owned enterprises, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered a more reliable indicator of private sector performance in China.
- Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a wider sample of companies than the official survey.
- Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings about China’s manufacturing sector.
- This will be followed by the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Monday, and services on Wednesday.