China August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 49.5), Services 50.3 (expected 50.0)

Official China PMI for August 2024 from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

More to come

The Chinese economy has shown, and continues to show, an uneven and unbalanced recovery. Key areas of concern include:

  • Uncertain outlook for debt-ridden real estate sector
  • Consumer confidence and demand decline
  • Excess manufacturing capacity in some sectors
  • Still below the target core inflation rate (this is affected by the above points about weak domestic demand and excess capacity).
  • On the horizon is the possibility of higher tariffs on Chinese exports.

The authorities have made targeted efforts to support the economy, but in a gradual manner. But there is still much work to be done.

There are two main PMI surveys in China – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by media company Caixin and research firm Markit/S&P Global.

  • The official PMI survey covers large, state-owned enterprises, while the Caixin PMI survey covers small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered a more reliable indicator of private sector performance in China.
  • Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a wider sample of companies than the official survey.
  • Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings about China’s manufacturing sector.
  • This will be followed by the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Monday, and services on Wednesday.
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