Citi provided a comment on the potential impact of the upcoming jobs report on the US dollar. The report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, has markets anticipating different outcomes for currency pairs that include the US dollar, such as and, based on different scenarios for non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.
Citi analysts note that if the non-farm payrolls data meets or exceeds consensus expectations, this could lead to a rise in USDJPY and USDCHF. In addition, forex currencies with high beta may also see a marginal increase against the US dollar due to lower recession risks.
Conversely, if non-farm payrolls data comes in slightly below expectations, USDJPY and USDCHF could fall, but the Fed’s dovish repricing may provide support to risk assets, allowing higher betas. Better performance against the US dollar.
If there is marked weakness in the non-farm payrolls report, as Citi Economics forecasts at 70,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, both USDJPY and USDCHF could decline significantly. This scenario could also put pressure on higher beta coins if higher risk aversion triggers a “bad news is bad news” market reaction.
Citi’s analysis also highlights two important considerations for the upcoming jobs report. First, a stronger-than-expected report could have a negative impact, especially if the ECB’s pivot narrative gains strength and the market trends toward selling the euro.
Second, the range of possible data outcomes could leave Fed and US dollar rates in uncertainty. The recent balanced speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the imminence of another jobs report before the November FOMC meeting may limit market movements unless there is a severe skew in the data.
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