Climate change makes India’s monsoons erratic. Can farmers still find a way to prosper?

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BENGALURU, India (AP) — Every year from June to September, a torrential band of rain makes its way from India's southwestern coast to its northeastern border, irrigating farmers' thirsty fields.

India's monsoon season is arguably the country's most important weather phenomenon, and a good monsoon can significantly boost the country's economy and the livelihoods of its 120 million farmers. But human-caused climate change is making rainfall more variable, making it harder for farmers to plant, grow and harvest crops in their rain-fed fields.

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“Either it rains heavily in a short period or it doesn't rain at all,” said Vijay Gwandia, a 77-year-old farmer in the western state of Maharashtra. Jawandhia grows cotton, soybeans, and many other crops that require a relatively cool climate and constant irrigation during the first few weeks after planting. “We planted our cotton seeds after anticipating good monsoon rains, but they came after only two days and then stopped, so now we are worried that our crops will fail again.”

The Indian Meteorological Department had predicted good rains due to monsoon clouds earlier this year, but the extreme heat in northern India hampered the rainfall. The agency revised its forecast in June, saying rainfall this year would be less than previously expected.

Many are looking for ways to adapt to this new, unpredictable reality. Experts suggest growing crops that need less water, better and more local forecasting methods and protection from unpredictable weather. But changing centuries-old ways of caring for the land will not be an easy task.

How does climate change affect monsoons?

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India typically experiences two monsoons: one from June to September moving from southwest to northeast, and one from October to December moving in the opposite direction.

But with more greenhouse gases in the air, rain loosely follows this pattern. This is because warmer air can carry more moisture from the Indian Ocean, and then this rain is eliminated in one fell swoop. This means that the monsoon is punctuated by severe floods and droughts, rather than continuous rain all the time.

“When it rains now, it rains heavily,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a retired senior official in India's Ministry of Earth Sciences. Rajeevan has tracked the monsoon for decades and observed that “the number of rainy days is decreasing even though the total amount of monsoon rainfall has remained the same over the past century or so.”

He added that landslides and floods are increasing, along with higher temperatures and longer periods of drought, which increases the suffering of farmers.

Floods can also lead to death and economic losses, such as hundreds killed and more than $1.42 billion in damage in Himachal Pradesh in 2023 due to heavy monsoon rains.

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Hydropower resources that generate large amounts of electricity are also being built keeping constant rains in mind, and heavy rains and floods can lead to health problems such as increased cases of typhoid, cholera and malaria, Rajeevan added.

What does this mean for farmers?

Erratic rainfall is a major blow to their livelihoods.

Maharashtra has seen thousands of farmers die by suicide, which many say is a result of agriculture-related debts. “Our area has become notorious because of this,” said farmer Gwandia.

Farmers in traditionally resource-rich areas, such as Punjab and Haryana in northern India, say they are negatively affected by fewer rainy days and more rain when it does rain.

Tezveer Singh, a farmer in Ambala, Haryana, recalls how “entire towns and fields were submerged, hundreds of livestock died from drowning and three people lost their lives” there in last year’s floods.

Singh grows rice, potatoes and sugarcane on his 20-acre farm, and said urgent policy changes were needed to stop flood damage.

He suggested that officials could “recover our losses where needed, provide climate-resilient seeds, make supply chains for agricultural products more efficient, and increase minimum crop prices.”

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“The climate has become difficult and we have to adapt,” he said.

How can they adapt?

The India Meteorological Agency makes state-level monsoon rain forecasts across the country, but climate experts say forecasts need to be more localized to be useful to farmers.

Predicting local weather and changing the times of year when farmers plant their crops can help, said Vishwas Chitale, who leads the climate resilience team at the New Delhi-based Energy, Environment and Water Council.

In many places across India, “maximum rainfall occurs in October now and not in June and July as before,” said Chitali, who also co-authored a 2024 report looking at changing monsoon patterns in India. “This leads to damage to a lot of crops waiting to be harvested.”

He added that it is important that better forecasts are available to everyone who needs them across the country.

Some farmers are already adapting to a warmer world. In the southern state of Kerala, the organic farming community is beginning to change as it plants and harvests plants according to changing rain patterns. The agricultural society has also developed an agricultural calendar that takes into account climate change, which they share with other local farmers.

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“Being prepared helps farmers,” said Rajesh Krishnan, a rice farmer who is a member of the group that worked with local meteorological officials in preparing the forecast. Their daily and weekly forecasts are at least 70% accurate, Krishnan said. “This helps in reducing losses and getting a better yield as well. The forecast also helps us decide when to harvest our crops,” he said.

Climate experts like Rajeevan said the collective model needs to be replicated across the country to allow farmers to work with changing monsoons.

“The monsoon is, after all, part of our culture,” he said. We cannot think of India without monsoons.

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