Basic Overview
Last week was a tough one for crude oil as the price fell more than 6% on renewed growth concerns amid weak US data. OPEC+’s delay in increasing production from October did not spark a rally but helped slow the downward momentum.
Much now depends on today’s US non-farm payrolls report, with good data expected to spark a rally, while weak numbers are likely to add to bearish momentum amid recession fears.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Time Frame
Crude oil daily
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil broke the recent low at 71.60 and extended the decline to 69. If the selling wave extends further, we can expect buyers to step in around 67.68 for a move towards 71.60. On the other hand, sellers will want to see the price drop to increase bearish bets towards the 64 support area.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Time Frame
Crude oil 4 hours
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that we have a downtrend line that defines the bearish momentum. We can expect sellers to continue to rely on the trend line to take another bearish stance, while buyers want to see the price rise higher to start targeting new highs.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame
Crude oil for an hour
On the 1-hour chart, we can see that the bearish momentum has diminished slightly as the price action has become range bound. Today we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls report and good numbers are likely to trigger a rally, while weak data could increase the bearish momentum. The red lines mark the average daily range for the day.
Upcoming incentives
Today we wrap up the week with the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, where the consensus expects 160,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.