In a story within the decentralized prediction market space, a researcher accused a cryptocurrency bettor, operating under the pseudonym “Fredi9999” or simply “Fredi,” of dramatically manipulating former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning on the Polymarket cryptocurrency platform. Over the past two weeks, Trump’s probability of winning has risen from near parity with Vice President Kamala Harris to 60.7%, while Harris’s probability of winning probability It decreased to 39.3%.
The allegations were Brought to light Written by Domer (@Domahhhh), a pseudonymous political cryptocurrency bettor, who detailed his findings in an extensive thread on All over the world SPOILER ALERT: I think I managed to contact him, and he blocked me after a few minutes. We’ll get back to that!
Is the Crypto Plattform Polymarket platform manipulated?
Domer detailed the mechanics of the alleged manipulation, highlighting that Freddie was placing large bets exclusively on Trump, reportedly exceeding $25 million. This influx of capital has offered a premium of roughly 5% to 8% on Trump odds, making bets on Trump more expensive while simultaneously reducing the cost of betting on Harris by a similar margin. According to Domer, this strategy disrupts Polymarket’s supply-and-demand balance, leading to skewed pricing that does not accurately reflect broader market sentiment.
Additional analysis by Domer revealed that Fredi9999 is not limited to one account. Instead, multiple accounts – PrincessCaro, Michie and Theo – are believed to be controlled by the same entity, and collectively hold positions worth around $28 million. The synchronization of large deposits from cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, typically in increments of $500,000 or $1 million, into these accounts before deploying funds solely on markets linked to Trump, suggests a coordinated effort to influence market outcomes.
In support of this claim, @fozzydiablo, another researcher, identified patterns across the four accounts that implied control by a single user. Domer pointed to @fozzydiablo’s findings, linking them to a detailed analysis.
The data indicates that one entity bought all bets related to Trump @polymarket With a total of $26 million.
-Fredi9999
-Princess Caro
– Walk
-Theo4By taking a look at their betting activity, we can analyze when accounts place bets.
The most interesting thing is when… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW– Foggy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024
Domer also speculated on the identity and possible motives behind Freddy’s actions. Observations of linguistic patterns in comments made by Freddie and associated accounts – such as the use of both British and American English spelling and strange spaces around punctuation marks – point to a possible French origin. Domer hypothesized: “Amnesty International believes the strange writing/spelling/misspellings indicate a Frenchman who learned British English and spent some time in America.”
However, Domer acknowledged the possibility of ulterior motives, including a scenario in which Freddy may be part of a larger scheme or even elaborate role-playing designed to hide true intentions. The researcher emphasized the unprecedented nature of the $25 million bet on a single candidate, highlighting the need for further investigation to uncover the underlying motives.
“Maybe it’s all a LARP and someone is having fun pretending it’s all, and trying to seem intentionally unsophisticated,” Domer wrote. “Maybe it’s connected to Elon (Musk) or one of the other big GOP donors. I have no idea, and it’s a game to see what’s going on.” “Here it might actually be (famous cryptocurrency trader) GCR even though GCR says it’s not him. GCR’s guess is that someone is trying to send Bitcoin higher, which is a good explanation.”
The revelation comes amid criticism from Hasso, a strategic advisor to cryptocurrency project Lido Finance and head of strategy at Flashbots. He commented via This market is not deep at a conventional level yet, especially given the size of the event. Its misleading reporting and giant shadows cast by the media make it seem that way and that is assuming there is no fake volume in Polymarket.
Historically, significant single bets have sometimes affected prediction markets. Domer pointed to previous examples from the US presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, where big bookmakers attempted to sway the market odds in favor of John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. Neither case ultimately changed the election results, which led to doubts about the effectiveness and impact of such large-scale bets.
Domer concluded his analysis by questioning the wider implications of Freddie’s actions: “Why should I care? Good question! It’s important to know who you’re betting against. Is this a super smart business and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy.” “Is this just a weak attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a large margin without any other motives? It is difficult to know what is happening here.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,646.
Featured image from Reuters, chart from TradingView.com