C’ttee seen recommending no cut in gas exports

Tomorrow (Wednesday), the conclusions of the Dayan Committee will be revealed at a press conference. The committee will make its recommendations regarding the amount of Israeli gas, which must be sold only in Israel and the amount of export, and what will happen to the ownership and competition model in the sector, and a set of other organizational issues.

According to the information that arrived in “Globes, the committee will leave the commitment to reserve the gas to the local market that has not changed (440 BCM), and thus it was decided that unless additional reserves are found, the era of the Israeli gas will end around the year 2045, and then most of the consumed natural gas in Israel will have to come from one.

In addition, the committee is not expected to recommend forcing Chevron to sell one of its tanks as the Ministry of Finance wants. But although, though, the committee has accepted the position of the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, the controversial decisions are expected to lead to the opinions of minorities in its report.

The official title of the committee, headed by the Director of the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, is the committee between the center to examine policy on the natural gas industry and enhance energy security. He met for the first time in February 2924 to develop a natural gas policy for Israel for the coming years. She had to decide how to balance many interests: energy security; Competition that will reduce prices. And encourage investment and exploration. These interests do not necessarily coincide. Export restrictions, for example, help in some aspects but hinder others.

The committee includes eleven members: four from the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, representatives of the Department of the Ministry of Finance, the National Economic Council, the National Council, the competition authority, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and the Ministry of Justice.

The first and perhaps most important issue is the commitment to providing the needs of the local market. Assuming that more large gas tanks are not discovered in Israeli waters, the amount of gas that Israel retains is limited, and the country must decide the amount that will allow it to be allowed, and the amount of its maintenance for internal consumption only.

On the one hand, long -term gas conservation will enhance energy independence in Israel and reduce the need for imports, and postpone the time that we will have to break our fast from cheap gas that we currently enjoy. On the other hand, exports are achieving significant tax revenues (on high sales prices), representing a diplomatic lever on Egypt and Jordan, and an important incentive to explore and develop gas that can expand the supply.

The dispute over the committee, which reached a close vote in this matter, was on two main possibilities: a proposal from the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure to maintain the commitment to provide the local economy at 440 BC; The proposal supported by the Ministry of Finance Budgets Department to raise the amount to 515 BC from 850 cubic meters, which, according to estimates of the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, contains Israel's proven reserves (gas producers put the amount of more than 1000 BC). Assuming that the prices of global natural gas are still somewhat high, the rest of the gas will be for export, especially for the neighbors of Israel, Egypt and Jordan.

According to the sources of the committee, the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure obtained, along with the National Economic Council, a majority in favor of retaining the smaller amount of home use. The Ministry of Finance and others in the committee may want the opinion of the minority in its report.

The decision means that from 2045, most of the gas used in Israel will be imported, where the Tamar tank will be exhausted. This is based on the conservative assumption that by that time Israel will generate only 18 % of energy needs from renewable sources. This compares to 30 %. At the end of 2024, the percentage was 14 %. “This is an important invitation, because the economy must start planning for the next day, and there is now greater clarity about the need to prepare for the post -gas era,” said sources in the committee.

It is expected that the committee will now recommend starting preparations for energy imports, which can be through pipelines or in the form of liquid natural gas brought by the ship. The committee also reminds the nuclear energy as a possibility to diversify and secure energy supplies in Israel after the gas is running out.

Chevron restricting?

Another major issue, raised by the Ministry of Finance Budgets Department, and even was publicly submitted by the head of the Yogev Gradus department in the department, which is the suggestion of removing Chevron from one of the gas tanks. This will be a radical organizational scale, and Chevron interacts sharply with this possibility. It seems that the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure also see as an extremist proposal, because the strict restrictions on the temple ownership structure will be vulnerable to deter other foreign players from investing in the development of Israeli gas reserves.

Instead, the committee prefers to examine more moderate capabilities, such as separate sales by both partners in the tank, and the exchange of local gas that facilitates sales at prices outside of regular supply contracts.

This is the first committee that determines that Israel will stop relying on its gas within a certain time. This period could have been long, but she chose not to do so in order to create certainty for both gas and consumers companies.

The Ministry of Finance Budgets Department said in response to the report: “We will not be attached before the publication of the report.”

In response, the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure said: “The committee’s recommendations create the appropriate balance between the needs of the local economy and maintain the situation of Israel as an attractive environment for investment, all in the public public interest.

“From the discussion of the committee and in the analyzes of supply and future demand, it highlights that the reserves of the existing natural gas in Israel are sufficient for the needs of the economy for at least 25 years, on the basis of conservative assumptions. All horror scenarios presented in the media by various interested parties are not necessary.

“In its recommendations, the committee gave a maximum priority for the public interest, and any other suggestion is not true.”

It was published by Globes, Israel Business News – En.globes.co.il – on April 8, 2025.

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