It was another volatile day in the financial markets, with currencies and asset classes dealing with a few top-tier catalysts.
Not only did Uncle Sam print advanced Q3 GDP, but Australia also released its quarterly inflation report while big tech companies like Meta and Microsoft released earnings numbers.
Check out the latest headlines that drive price action!
Titles:
- Australia CPI q/q: 0.2% (0.3% expected, 1.0% previous) The annual reading decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% versus 2.3% expected
- Japan Consumer Confidence Index fell from 36.9 to 36.2 in October (36.7 expected)
- Preliminary German Consumer Price Index Acceleration from 0.0% to 0.2% m/m in September (0.2% forecast)
- French GDP Flash The third quarter showed an expansion of 0.3% on a quarterly basis versus the estimated figure of 0.3%, and the previous reading decreased from 0.3% growth to 0.2%.
- Swiss economic gauge KOF in October: 99.5 (expect 105.1, previous reading reduced from 105.5 to 104.5)
- Spanish Flash CPI Increased from 1.5% YoY to 1.8% (1.7% expected)
- German unemployment change in September: 27K (15K expected, previous reading revised from 17K to 19K in unemployment)
- Eurozone preliminary GDP in the third quarter: 0.4% monthly (0.2% expected, previous reading reduced from 0.3% to 0.2%)
- OPEC+ is considering postponing the increase in production By a month or so last December, according to a Reuters report citing three sources
- Schnabel, the ECB official, says falling inflation remains on track but the battle against inflation has not yet been won, so a gradual approach to deregulation is appropriate.
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in October: 233K (110K expected, previous reading was upgraded from 143K to 159K)
- US third quarter GDP presents: 2.8% QoQ (3.0% expected, previous reading upgraded from 2.8% to 3.0%)
- Advanced US GDP price index for the third quarter: 1.8% QoQ (expect 1.9%, previous reading revised higher from 2.3% to 2.5%)
- UK autumn forecast statement It reveals a pay rise for more than 3 million workers next year, as the national living wage rises by 6.7% and the national minimum wage for 18-20s will rise by £1.40 an hour – the biggest rise ever.
- Pending home sales in the US jumped 7.4% m/m in September (expected 1.9%, previous 0.6%)
- A US election poll indicated that Trump is ahead of Harris in the state of Pennsylvania and is achieving progress compared to previous polls
- EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels (expected increase of 1.5 million, previous increase of 5.5 million)
Broad market price movement:
Dollar index, gold, S&P 500, oil, US 10-year yield, Bitcoin overlay Chart by TradingView
The major asset classes started the day relatively calm, moving mostly sideways throughout the Asian session, with WTI rising slowly but surely.
It is rumored that OPEC is considering delaying the planned production increase for a month or so beyond the December target date.
The energy commodity continued to advance ahead of the release of top-tier US data, but fell after seeing advanced GDP data slightly weaker than expected, raising some concerns about demand. Crude oil resumed its rally after seeing a surprise drop in EIA inventories, which appeared to reassure investors that consumption was supported.
Meanwhile, gold traders seem to be taking it easy today, as the precious metal hovers slightly within positive territory throughout. Cryptocurrency traders also took the pill, as the BTC/USD price remained just below all-time highs.
On the other hand, US stock indices found themselves in the red despite strong gains from major technology companies such as Meta and Microsoft, as a massive decline in AMD shares dragged shares of other chipmakers south.
Forex market behavior: US dollar against major currencies:
Overlay of the US dollar against major currencies Chart by TradingView
The trading day began with another bout of volatility for the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as a weaker-than-expected Australian quarterly CPI initially led to a slight decline in the AUD/USD pair, followed by a rapid decline and then a larger sell-off.
The rest of the dollar pairs moved cautiously in ranges, although USD/JPY was still slightly in the red. The dollar found itself in a weak position at the start of the London session, as risk appetite appeared to be improving while the euro received some support from mostly better-than-expected preliminary GDP and CPI readings from the region’s largest economies.
However, the GBP/USD pair veered away from the pack, as traders looked uneasy ahead of the Chancellor’s budget announcement. The actual autumn forecast statement initially spurred sterling gains when markets focused on next year’s big pay rise and the lack of huge tax rises, but these gains were short-lived.
As for the US data points, the dollar made some gains after seeing stronger than expected ADP numbers for October and positive revisions in the previous month’s numbers, as these indicated a possible bullish surprise for the Non-Farm Payrolls report. However, the currency regained these gains and more when the advanced US GDP reading fell below estimates while the price index fell for the quarter.
Potential catalysts coming on the economic calendar:
- ANZ Business Confidence Index at 12:00 AM GMT
- Australian retail sales at 12:30am GMT
- China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI 1:00 AM GMT
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and Press Coming
- German import prices and retail sales at 7:00 AM GMT
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone 10:00 AM GMT
- Canada’s monthly GDP at 12:30 PM GMT
- US core personal consumption expenditures price index 12:30 pm GMT
- US Quarterly Labor Cost Index 12:30 pm GMT
- Initial unemployment claims in the United States 12:30 pm GMT
- US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 12:45 pm GMT
It’s bound to be another topsy-turvy trading day as we have a host of major economic events on deck!
Stay tuned for the release Official Chinese PMI readings During the Asian trading session, as this may strongly affect overall market sentiment, followed by Monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan This can lead to big movements between the yen pairs.
after that, Eurozone CPI flash readings October could influence the ECB’s policy outlook and push the common currency. Volatility is likely to remain high throughout the US session as the index is released Core personal consumption expenditures price indexwhich could shape expectations for next week’s Fed statement, and Weekly initial unemployment claims number.
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