We are checking out the battle of the comdolls as AUD/NZD looks ready for a short term downtrend extension!
Will the Australian dollar catch up? Or will the New Zealand dollar extend the downtrend of the Australian dollar?
Before moving on to ICYMI, I’ve listed potential economic catalysts you need to watch out for this week. Check them out before you start your first trades today!
And now for the main headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Headlines and recent economic data for the market:
Approval of new residential buildings Continues to fall in New Zealand, down -2.6%m/m in May (from -2.6%m/m in April)
Bank of Japan Tankan Industrial Index Jump from 1 to 5, and non-manufacturing index It was also higher from 20 to 23 in the second quarter as raw material costs peaked and the removal of pandemic restrictions pushed up plant production and consumption.
Melbourne Institute Inflation Scale It slowed from 0.9% to 0.1% in May
Job postings in Australia ANZ already It fell 2.5% m/m in June (vs. 0.1% in May). ANZ noted that “it will take time for the labor market to ease up” but “the direction of change is clear”.
volatile Australian building approvals Up -20.6% MoM in May (vs -6.8% in April)
Caixin Manufacturing in China PMI It slowed from 50.9 to 50.5 in June (vs. 50.0 expected) as firms grew more concerned about sluggish market conditions.
Swiss consumer price index It slowed to 0.1% m/m in June (vs. 0.3% in May) and 1.7% m/y (vs. 2.2% in May) as prices for air transport, petrol, diesel and stone fruit fell while prices for vegetables and hotels fell. price increase.
Price action news
Risk was the name of the game during the Asian and early European sessions, as traders caught up to their US pricing counterparts in the slower core PCE reading and possibly the Fed’s less hawkish policy path on Friday.
It also didn’t hurt that traders keen to buy assets on the first day of the month (and the second half of the year!) had momentum on their side.
Traders particularly liked the New Zealand dollar, which benefited from better-than-expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI and posted the highest gain against all of the major currencies.
S&P Final Manufacturing PMI in the US at 1:45pm GMT
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
New Zealand Business Confidence at 10:00pm GMT
RBA Policy Decision 4:30 AM GMT (July 4)
Use our new file Currency heat map To quickly see a visual overview of the forex market price movement! 🔥 🗺️
Forex AUD/NZD for 15 minutes Planned by TV
It looks like AUD/NZD is ready to extend its bearish trend ahead of the RBA’s decision!
As you can see, AUD/NZD rebounded from the S1 line (1.0820) of today’s standard pivot points but also encountered resistance around the mid-channel area near 1.0840.
Do Australian bears just take their breath? Or are Australian dollar traders preparing for RBA induced volatility?
Remember, traders are mostly expecting the RBA to keep interest rates at 4.10% after raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and June.
If the central bank holds its rates steady as expected, AUD/NZD could drop back to lows of 1.0820 or even try to reach the psychological level of 1.0800.
But if the RBA surprises to the upside, AUD/NZD could revisit July highs between 1.0850 and 1.0860.
what do you think?