Risk flows weighed on the New Zealand dollar, even with most markets closed for a holiday.
Can NZD/USD Continue to Rise During NFP Release?
Before moving on to ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at the ascending channel in USD/CAD which led to the Canadian Payrolls release. Be sure to check if it’s still playable!
And now for the main headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Headlines and recent economic data for the market:
The Canadian economy added 34.7 thousand jobs in March compared to an estimated increase of 10.2 thousand and 21.8 thousand previously, which is enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 5.0% against the expected increase to 5.1%.
US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 228K vs. 200K expected and the previous increase of 246K.
Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index improved from 51.6 to 58.2 in March reflecting a sharply stronger pace of expansion against the figure of 52.0.
Average Japanese cash earnings accelerated from 0.8% to 1.1% y/y in February versus an expected figure of 1.2%, and the monthly data reflected an 11th consecutive monthly decline.
Japanese household spending rebounded from 0.3% to 1.6% in February versus an expected rise of 4.9%
Asian and European markets are closed on Holy Thursday and the Good Friday holidays
Price action news
Despite the lack of first class catalysts during the past trading sessions, the New Zealand dollar lagged behind its peers while the Franc took the lead as risk aversion seemed to linger in the markets.
Sideways price action has resumed around the US and Asian sessions, as traders are likely to reduce positions to prepare for the release of the NFP and the shortened trading week.
Possible catalysts coming in the economic calendar:
US Nonfarm Payrolls report at 12:30 PM GMT
US Consumer Credit data at 7:00 pm GMT
Use the new Currency heat map To quickly see a visual overview of the forex market price movement! 🔥 🗺️
NZD/USD 1 hour chart by TradingView
The pair is still in a steady uptrend within its ascending channel, but the price is now falling to the bottom.
Support at the minor psychological mark .6250 and the pivot point appear to be holding, so more Kiwi bulls may decide to take advantage of the bullish momentum from here.
If so, NZD/USD could rebound to the top of the channel at 0.6350 and R2 (.6360) or at least to the middle at R1 (.6310).
Of course it all boils down to the result of the NFP report, as a surprise to the downside will confirm fears of a slowdown in the US labor market.
Analysts expect to see an increase of 228K in employment, down from the previous gain of 311K, which could still be enough to keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%.